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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-08-22 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
TOR at NYY / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Dylan CeaseTOR starter / away
Projected K8.6Actual 8 K / Under 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O -115 betonlineag / U -101 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 8.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.599%over
O 3.596%over
O 4.591%over
O 5.584%over
O 6.573%over
O 7.561%over
O 8.548%under
O 9.536%under
O 10.525%under
O 11.517%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Ryan WeathersNYY starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +122 betonlineag / U -150 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 5.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%under
O 4.556%under
O 5.540%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

ATL at MIL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Martín PérezATL starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 fanatics / U -110 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.571%under
O 3.551%under
O 4.532%under
O 5.518%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Logan HendersonMIL starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +102 betonlineag / U -125 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 6.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%under
O 5.554%under
O 6.539%under
O 7.526%under
O 8.516%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

WSN at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jake IrvinWSN starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -102 fanduel / U -115 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Eury PérezMIA starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -122 draftkings / U +102 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%under
O 5.551%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

STL at PHI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Quinn MathewsSTL starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -105 betmgm / U +106 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%under
O 4.551%under
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Andrew PainterPHI starter / home
Projected K3.8Actual 8 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -150 betrivers / U +128 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.553%over
O 4.534%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.510%over
O 7.55%over
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

LAA at TEX / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Ryan JohnsonLAA starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -125 fanatics / U +108 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.560%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%under
O 4.541%under
O 5.526%under
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Cody BradfordTEX starter / home
Projected K5.2Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +124 fanduel / U -145 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.575%under
O 4.558%under
O 5.541%under
O 6.527%under
O 7.516%under
O 8.59%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

TBR at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Shane McClanahanTBR starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +100 fanatics / U -118 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.529%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Brandon YoungBAL starter / home
Projected K4.7Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -129 draftkings / U +104 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 3.568%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%under
O 4.550%under
O 5.533%under
O 6.520%under
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

OAK at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jacob LopezOAK starter / away
Projected K4.8Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 betmgm / U +105 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.552%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%over
O 7.513%over
O 8.57%over
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Hunter BrownHOU starter / home
Projected K5.7Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -135 bovada / U +124 draftkings3 books at this line
Model over 5.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.566%under
O 5.550%under
O 6.535%under
O 7.522%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

NYM at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Christian ScottNYM starter / away
Projected K5.8Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -145 betmgm / U +124 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Luis CastilloCHW starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.4Actual 3 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.544%under
O 4.526%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.56%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

CHC at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
David PetersonCHC starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +110 bovada / U -138 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%over
O 7.58%over
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

Kade AndersonSEA starter / homeThin data
Projected K3.7Actual 5 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.570%over
O 3.550%over
O 4.531%over
O 5.517%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

PIT at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jared JonesPIT starter / away
Projected K4.5Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -148 fanduel / U +121 betonlineag5 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%over
O 4.547%over
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Tarik SkubalLAD starter / home
Projected K8.2Actual 11 K / Over 8.5
Best price at 8.58.5O +107 betrivers / U -126 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 8.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.5100%over
O 2.598%over
O 3.595%over
O 4.590%over
O 5.581%over
O 6.570%over
O 7.557%over
O 8.544%over
O 9.532%over
O 10.522%over
O 11.514%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

DET at KCR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Drew AndersonDET starter / away
Projected K3.2Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +135 betmgm / U -154 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 4.523%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.562%over
O 3.540%over
O 4.523%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Michael WachaKCR starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +125 draftkings / U -155 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.566%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.531%over
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

SFG at BOS / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Blade TidwellSFG starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -113 betrivers / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 3.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%over
O 3.551%over
O 4.533%over
O 5.519%over
O 6.59%over
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Patrick SandovalBOS starter / home
Projected K4.4Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -104 fanduel / U -113 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 5.528%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.545%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

CLE at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tanner BibeeCLE starter / away
Projected K4.2Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +102 draftkings / U -122 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Gabriel HughesCOL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +145 bovada / U -161 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%under
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

CIN at ARI / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Rhett LowderCIN starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 draftkings / U -115 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%under
O 2.572%under
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.59%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Michael SorokaARI starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -144 draftkings / U +120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 5.531%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.582%over
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

MIN at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Dean KremerMIN starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +112 draftkings / U -130 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.534%under
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Casey MizeSDP starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -109 betrivers / U -102 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.581%under
O 3.564%under
O 4.546%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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