Ranked picks with source labels.

Model at 67.3% vs market 66.8% on DET — near consensus. Skubal's 2.81 ERA in 48 IP is solid but Fedde's 4.50 ERA creates mismatch. Model total 8.93...

Model at 58.3% vs market 59.2% on TEX is aligned. But model total of 8.93 runs vs market 7.0 is a 1.93-run gap—structural miss. DeGrom (3.17 ERA, 1...

Model has CHC 55.5% vs market 52.4%—minor comparison. But Brown's 1.74 ERA in 62 IP is elite, Gausman 3.41 in 87 IP is solid: ace matchup. Model to...

Model has total at 8.83 vs market 6.5—a 2.3-run gap that screams structural miss. T-Mobile (PF 0.855) with ace matchup (Miller 1.54 ERA, Suarez 3.2...

Model has MIL at 51.5%, market at 62.0% — a huge 10.5pp disagreement favoring the road side. Misiorowski's 1.34 ERA and 13.55 K/9 over 87 IP is eli...

Model sees Coors coin flip; market leans PIT at 55.8%. Freeland's 7.98 ERA in 58.7 IP is genuine trouble. Model predicts 9.3 runs vs market 11.5—pa...

Model has WSN 54.5% but market slightly favors TBR at 53.5% — near-coinflip. Model total of 9.05 vs market 7.5 is a 1.55-run gap in pitcher-friendl...