Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has KCR at 63% vs market coin-flip, driven by Dobnak's 1.86 ERA in 9.7 IP (tiny sample). Canning's 6.47 ERA in 56 IP is real. Market total 11...

Both pitchers are fallback substitutes (Logan Allen and TBD). Model shows CLE at 55.6% vs market's 50% toss-up, but with no actual pitcher data, th...

Model has CLE at 62% vs market's 53%—a 9-point gap triggering market_disagreement_large. PIT's 7.0 RPG and .710 OPS are significantly better than C...

Clear comparison to DET. Skubal (3.09 ERA, 10.59 K/9, 0.95 WHIP in 75.7 IP) is elite; Rodriguez (7.55 ERA, 1.74 WHIP in 31 IP) is struggling badly....