KCR at MIN

Model has MIN 58.4%, market implies 62.0% — moderate disagreement favoring home. Joe Ryan's 3.38 ERA over 114 IP is legitimate; Dobnak's 1.42 ERA i...

Model (58.3%) and market (61.2% implied) both favor PHI. Luzardo's 3.31 ERA over 122 IP is legitimate, Gusto's 4.50 in 34 IP is small-sample noisy....

Model has NYY 58.3%, market 57.0% — tight convergence. Schlittler's 2.07 ERA and 10.84 K/9 over 130 IP is elite, Martin's 3.49 ERA is solid. Ace ma...

Sale (2.19 ERA, 111 IP) vs Scott (3.13 ERA, 63 IP) is a legitimate ace matchup at pitcher-friendly Citi Field. Model has total at 8.9 vs market 7.0...

Model likes TEX 54.2%, market has TBR at 56.6% — a 12-point swing triggering the disagreement flag. TBR's offense (4.7 RPG, .802 OPS) is superior t...

Model gives SFG 53.5% but market says MIL -118 (54.1%). Milwaukee's 67-40 record, 5.2 RPG, and .972 OPS dwarf SFG's 45-62, 3.9 RPG, .388 OPS. Oracl...

Model likes LAA at 54% but market has HOU favored at 55%. Away pitcher is fallback (no resolved stats for Wesneski), making this structural noise....

Market favors PIT at 54.8% implied but model gives ARI slight comparison at 51.3%. Rodriguez's 2.64 ERA over 122.7 IP is legit, Jones at 3.72 in ju...

Model picks COL at 55.2% but market has SDP at 57.8%; home pitcher TBD is a major blind spot. COL's 42-66 record and 4.8 RPG suggest offense-defens...

Model has BAL 50.8% but market implies DET 61.4% — a 10.6pp gap flags large disagreement. Skubal's 2.70 ERA, 11.0 K/9, 0.92 WHIP across 90 IP is el...

Model has WSN 50.4% vs market 48.4%, essentially a coin flip. TOR's 2.8 RPG is alarmingly low but Yesavage (3.92 ERA, 9.21 K/9) is superior to Litt...