MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-04-30 / 11 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-04-30
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
COLColorado Rockies+144
CINCincinnati Reds-173
Pick Probability58%CIN moneyline
COLMichael Lorenzen
CINAndrew Abbott
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
CIN / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Market implies 61% CIN, model has 58%. Abbott's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is too small to trust; Lorenzen's 6.23 ERA in 4.1 IP is equally noisy. CIN's 6.1...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros+104
BALBaltimore Orioles-125
Pick Probability57%BAL moneyline
HOUPeter Lambert
BALChris Bassitt
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
BAL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros+104
BALBaltimore Orioles-122
Pick Probability57%BAL moneyline
HOULance McCullers Jr.
BALBrandon Young
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
BAL / pass confidence / Rank 9

Both pitchers are fallback data (Young 5.1 IP / 10 starts is obviously incomplete, away starter is TBD). Market data is stale. Model leans BAL at 5...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+122
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-147
Pick Probability56%SFG moneyline
SFGLogan Webb
PHICristopher Sánchez
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
PHI / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has SFG at 55.7% but market implies PHI 57.3% — a meaningful divergence. Sánchez's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is tiny sample noise, but Webb's 10.80 ER...

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+120
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-145
Pick Probability56%SFG moneyline
SFGAdrian Houser
PHITim Mayza
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
SFG / pass confidence / Rank 4

Both starters are TBD with fallback stats showing minimal IP (6.0 and 4.0). No way to assess the actual matchup. Market data is stale so no anchor...

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-04-30
Rank#1
TOR at MINToronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins
AI Analyst PickTORstandard confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelMIN / 53%Model pick probability

Model gives MIN 53.4% despite worse record (13-18 vs 14-16), worse offense (3.9 RPG vs 4.8), and worse OPS (.673 vs .786). Market correctly favors TOR at 54.6% implied...

Rank#2
DET at ATLDetroit Tigers at Atlanta Braves
AI Analyst PickATLlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelDET / 55%Model pick probability

Model favors DET at 55.2% but market has ATL at 54.8% — a rare convergence at coin-flip odds. ATL's 22-9 record and .789 OPS vs DET's .582 OPS is stark; offense_defens...

Rank#3
COL at CINColorado Rockies at Cincinnati Reds
AI Analyst PickCINlean confidence
Agrees with modelCIN / 58%Model pick probability

Market implies 61% CIN, model has 58%. Abbott's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is too small to trust; Lorenzen's 6.23 ERA in 4.1 IP is equally noisy. CIN's 6.1 RPG offense vs COL'...

Rank#4
SFG at PHISan Francisco Giants at Philadelphia Phillies
AI Analyst PickPHIlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelSFG / 56%Model pick probability

Model has SFG at 55.7% but market implies PHI 57.3% — a meaningful divergence. Sánchez's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is tiny sample noise, but Webb's 10.80 ERA in 5 IP is real st...

Rank#5
WSN at NYMWashington Nationals at New York Mets
AI Analyst PickWSNlean confidence
Agrees with modelWSN / 55%Model pick probability

Model has WSN at 55% but market implies NYM 65%—a 10-point gap flags structural miss. Both starters have 7.20 ERAs in tiny samples (5.0 IP each), rendering SP stats un...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

11 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
COLColorado Rockies+144
CINCincinnati Reds-173
Pick Probability58%CIN moneyline
COLMichael Lorenzen
CINAndrew Abbott
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
CIN / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Market implies 61% CIN, model has 58%. Abbott's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is too small to trust; Lorenzen's 6.23 ERA in 4.1 IP is equally noisy. CIN's 6.1...

MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros+104
BALBaltimore Orioles-125
Pick Probability57%BAL moneyline
HOUPeter Lambert
BALChris Bassitt
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
BAL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros+104
BALBaltimore Orioles-122
Pick Probability57%BAL moneyline
HOULance McCullers Jr.
BALBrandon Young
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
BAL / pass confidence / Rank 9

Both pitchers are fallback data (Young 5.1 IP / 10 starts is obviously incomplete, away starter is TBD). Market data is stale. Model leans BAL at 5...

MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+122
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-147
Pick Probability56%SFG moneyline
SFGLogan Webb
PHICristopher Sánchez
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
PHI / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has SFG at 55.7% but market implies PHI 57.3% — a meaningful divergence. Sánchez's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is tiny sample noise, but Webb's 10.80 ER...

MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+120
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-145
Pick Probability56%SFG moneyline
SFGAdrian Houser
PHITim Mayza
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
SFG / pass confidence / Rank 4

Both starters are TBD with fallback stats showing minimal IP (6.0 and 4.0). No way to assess the actual matchup. Market data is stale so no anchor...

MLBMoneyline
Open
DETDetroit Tigers+108
ATLAtlanta Braves-126
Pick Probability55%DET moneyline
DETFramber Valdez
ATLBryce Elder
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.6
AI Analyst
ATL / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model favors DET at 55.2% but market has ATL at 54.8% — a rare convergence at coin-flip odds. ATL's 22-9 record and .789 OPS vs DET's .582 OPS is s...

MLBMoneyline
Open
WSNWashington Nationals+172
NYMNew York Mets-208
Pick Probability55%WSN moneyline
WSNMiles Mikolas
NYMFreddy Peralta
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.4
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
WSN / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model has WSN at 55% but market implies NYM 65%—a 10-point gap flags structural miss. Both starters have 7.20 ERAs in tiny samples (5.0 IP each), r...

MLBMoneyline
Open
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+106
MILMilwaukee Brewers-125
Pick Probability54%MIL moneyline
ARIMichael Soroka
MILBrandon Woodruff
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
MIL / pass confidence / Rank 7

Model has MIL 53.6%, market 53.8%—perfect convergence. Both pitchers show 10 starts but missing ERA/WHIP/K9 data entirely, making this effectively...

MLBMoneyline
Open
KCRKansas City Royals+108
OAKOakland Athletics-127
Pick Probability54%OAK moneyline
KCRNoah Cameron
OAKJeffrey Springs
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.2
Model pick
OAK moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
TORToronto Blue Jays-136
MINMinnesota Twins+115
Pick Probability53%MIN moneyline
TORKevin Gausman
MINBailey Ober
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.1
AI Analyst
TOR / standard confidence / Rank 1 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model gives MIN 53.4% despite worse record (13-18 vs 14-16), worse offense (3.9 RPG vs 4.8), and worse OPS (.673 vs .786). Market correctly favors...

MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+185
PITPittsburgh Pirates-225
Pick Probability51%PIT moneyline
STLHunter Dobbins
PITPaul Skenes
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
STL / lean confidence / Analyst disagrees with base model

Skenes' 67.5 ERA in 0.2 IP is a data artifact (likely opener role). Dobbins has no stats. Market implies 66.7% PIT; model says 50.6%. The 16-percen...

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