MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-06-28 / 15 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-06-28
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
KCRKansas City Royals+116
CHWChicago White Sox-136
Pick Probability58%KCR moneyline
KCRLuinder AvilaConfirmed
CHWAnthony KayConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
KCR / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Agrees with model

Model picks KCR at 58% but market has CHW at 55%, a 13-point disagreement. KCR's offense is historically poor (.518 OPS, 2.0 RPG) yet model leans r...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics-108
LAALos Angeles Angels-110
Pick Probability58%OAK moneyline
OAKAaron CivaleConfirmed
LAASam AldegheriConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
OAK / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Model has OAK 58.3%, market implies 53.3% — modest 5pt comparison. The real story is the total: model projects 7.82, market set at 9.5, a 1.7-run g...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves-184
SFGSan Francisco Giants+153
Pick Probability58%ATL moneyline
ATLChris SaleConfirmed
SFGRobbie RayConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.4
Margin Context1.5
AI Analyst
ATL / standard confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

ATL implied at 71% by Pinnacle vs model's 58%. Chris Sale (2.14 ERA, 10.61 K/9) is dominant; SFG offense is league-worst at 1.4 RPG/.388 OPS. Model...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-138
SDPSan Diego Padres+116
Pick Probability58%LAD moneyline
LADEmmet SheehanConfirmed
SDPMichael KingConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.9
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
LAD / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Agrees with model

Model has LAD at 58%, market at 55% — mild convergence. The 9.85 total is nearly 2 runs above market's 8.0 at Petco (PF 0.962), a known pitcher par...

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+166
TBRTampa Bay Rays-200
Pick Probability54%TBR moneyline
ARIMerrill KellyConfirmed
TBRDrew RasmussenConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
TBR / strong confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

Model underweights TBR comparison: Rasmussen 2.62 ERA vs Kelly 5.71 ERA is a massive SP mismatch. Market at 63.2% implied reflects this; model at 5...

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-06-28
Rank#1
ARI at TBRArizona Diamondbacks at Tampa Bay Rays
AI Analyst PickTBRstrong confidence
Agrees with modelTBR / 54%Model pick probability

Model underweights TBR comparison: Rasmussen 2.62 ERA vs Kelly 5.71 ERA is a massive SP mismatch. Market at 63.2% implied reflects this; model at 54% misses the gap. K...

Rank#2
ATL at SFGAtlanta Braves at San Francisco Giants
AI Analyst PickATLstandard confidence
Agrees with modelATL / 58%Model pick probability

ATL implied at 71% by Pinnacle vs model's 58%. Chris Sale (2.14 ERA, 10.61 K/9) is dominant; SFG offense is league-worst at 1.4 RPG/.388 OPS. Model total of 9.45 runs...

Rank#3
OAK at LAAOakland Athletics at Los Angeles Angels
AI Analyst PickOAKlean confidence
Agrees with modelOAK / 58%Model pick probability

Model has OAK 58.3%, market implies 53.3% — modest 5pt comparison. The real story is the total: model projects 7.82, market set at 9.5, a 1.7-run gap. Both offenses ar...

Rank#4
LAD at SDPLos Angeles Dodgers at San Diego Padres
AI Analyst PickLADlean confidence
Agrees with modelLAD / 58%Model pick probability

Model has LAD at 58%, market at 55% — mild convergence. The 9.85 total is nearly 2 runs above market's 8.0 at Petco (PF 0.962), a known pitcher park. King's 3.33 ERA i...

Rank#5
HOU at DETHouston Astros at Detroit Tigers
AI Analyst PickHOUlean confidence
Agrees with modelHOU / 51%Model pick probability

Model sees coin flip (50.6% HOU), market leans HOU harder (-126 implies 55.8%). Hunter Brown's 1.40 ERA in 19.3 IP is extreme small sample; Flaherty's 5.35 ERA over 65...

Rank#6
KCR at CHWKansas City Royals at Chicago White Sox
AI Analyst PickKCRlean confidence
Agrees with modelKCR / 58%Model pick probability

Model picks KCR at 58% but market has CHW at 55%, a 13-point disagreement. KCR's offense is historically poor (.518 OPS, 2.0 RPG) yet model leans road underdog. SHAP f...

Rank#7
TEX at TORTexas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays
AI Analyst PickTORlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelTEX / 53%Model pick probability

Model likes TEX at 53.4% but market has TOR at 54.8%. Bieber's 9.82 ERA in 3.7 IP is catastrophic small sample; he's working back from injury. Rocker's 4.14 ERA over 7...

Rank#8
WSN at BALWashington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles
AI Analyst PickBALlean confidence
Agrees with modelBAL / 52%Model pick probability

Model has BAL 51.7%, market 63.1% — an 11.4pp gap flags structural miss. Model total 7.44 vs market 9.0 is massive (1.56 runs). Bradish 3.64 ERA in 89 IP is legitimate...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

15 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
KCRKansas City Royals+116
CHWChicago White Sox-136
Pick Probability58%KCR moneyline
KCRLuinder AvilaConfirmed
CHWAnthony KayConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
KCR / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Agrees with model

Model picks KCR at 58% but market has CHW at 55%, a 13-point disagreement. KCR's offense is historically poor (.518 OPS, 2.0 RPG) yet model leans r...

MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics-108
LAALos Angeles Angels-110
Pick Probability58%OAK moneyline
OAKAaron CivaleConfirmed
LAASam AldegheriConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
OAK / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Model has OAK 58.3%, market implies 53.3% — modest 5pt comparison. The real story is the total: model projects 7.82, market set at 9.5, a 1.7-run g...

MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves-184
SFGSan Francisco Giants+153
Pick Probability58%ATL moneyline
ATLChris SaleConfirmed
SFGRobbie RayConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.4
Margin Context1.5
AI Analyst
ATL / standard confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

ATL implied at 71% by Pinnacle vs model's 58%. Chris Sale (2.14 ERA, 10.61 K/9) is dominant; SFG offense is league-worst at 1.4 RPG/.388 OPS. Model...

MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-138
SDPSan Diego Padres+116
Pick Probability58%LAD moneyline
LADEmmet SheehanConfirmed
SDPMichael KingConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.9
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
LAD / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Agrees with model

Model has LAD at 58%, market at 55% — mild convergence. The 9.85 total is nearly 2 runs above market's 8.0 at Petco (PF 0.962), a known pitcher par...

MLBMoneyline
Open
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+166
TBRTampa Bay Rays-200
Pick Probability54%TBR moneyline
ARIMerrill KellyConfirmed
TBRDrew RasmussenConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
TBR / strong confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

Model underweights TBR comparison: Rasmussen 2.62 ERA vs Kelly 5.71 ERA is a massive SP mismatch. Market at 63.2% implied reflects this; model at 5...

MLBMoneyline
Open
COLColorado Rockies+140
MINMinnesota Twins-167
Pick Probability54%MIN moneyline
COLRyan FeltnerConfirmed
MINConnor PrielippConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.4
Margin Context0.1
Model pick
MIN moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
TEXTexas Rangers+110
TORToronto Blue Jays-132
Pick Probability53%TEX moneyline
TEXKumar RockerConfirmed
TORShane BieberConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
TOR / lean confidence / Rank 7 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model likes TEX at 53.4% but market has TOR at 54.8%. Bieber's 9.82 ERA in 3.7 IP is catastrophic small sample; he's working back from injury. Rock...

MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-159
NYMNew York Mets+133
Pick Probability53%PHI moneyline
PHIJesús LuzardoConfirmed
NYMCionel PérezConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.6
Model pick
PHI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHCChicago Cubs+138
MILMilwaukee Brewers-164
Pick Probability53%MIL moneyline
CHCRyan RolisonConfirmed
MILBrandon WoodruffConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.4
Margin Context0.0
Model pick
MIL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CINCincinnati Reds+115
PITPittsburgh Pirates-137
Pick Probability53%PIT moneyline
CINBrady SingerConfirmed
PITMitch KellerConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.1
Model pick
PIT moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
SEASeattle Mariners+104
CLECleveland Guardians-125
Pick Probability53%CLE moneyline
SEAEmerson HancockConfirmed
CLEGavin WilliamsConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.1
Model pick
CLE moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
WSNWashington Nationals+170
BALBaltimore Orioles-202
Pick Probability52%BAL moneyline
WSNZack LittellConfirmed
BALKyle BradishConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
BAL / lean confidence / Rank 8 / Agrees with model

Model has BAL 51.7%, market 63.1% — an 11.4pp gap flags structural miss. Model total 7.44 vs market 9.0 is massive (1.56 runs). Bradish 3.64 ERA in...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MIAMiami Marlins+104
STLSt. Louis Cardinals-125
Pick Probability52%STL moneyline
MIATyler PhillipsConfirmed
STLKyle LeahyConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
STL / pass confidence / Rank 9

Model total of 7.99 is 1.5 runs below market's 9.5, triggering total_far_from_market. Phillips' 3.09 ERA over 58 IP is solid; Leahy's 4.24 ERA and...

MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros-114
DETDetroit Tigers-102
Pick Probability51%HOU moneyline
HOUHunter BrownConfirmed
DETJack FlahertyConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
HOU / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model sees coin flip (50.6% HOU), market leans HOU harder (-126 implies 55.8%). Hunter Brown's 1.40 ERA in 19.3 IP is extreme small sample; Flahert...

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYYNew York Yankees-108
BOSBoston Red Sox-112
Pick Probability51%NYY moneyline
NYYCarlos RodónConfirmed
BOSSonny GrayConfirmed
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.4
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
NYY / pass confidence / Rank 10

Model sees coin flip (50.6% NYY), market agrees (51.6% BOS). Gray's 2.95 ERA in 76 IP is legitimate, Rodón's peripherals (10 K/9) are strong. Model...

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