MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-07-18 / 15 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-07-18
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
SDPSan Diego Padres-110
KCRKansas City Royals-108
Pick Probability63%KCR moneyline
SDPGriffin CanningConfirmed
KCRRandy DobnakConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total11.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context1.2
AI Analyst
KCR / pass confidence / Rank 6

Model has KCR at 63% vs market coin-flip, driven by Dobnak's 1.86 ERA in 9.7 IP (tiny sample). Canning's 6.47 ERA in 56 IP is real. Market total 11...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates-105
CLECleveland Guardians-112
Pick Probability63%CLE moneyline
PITMason MontgomeryConfirmed
CLELogan AllenConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context1.3
AI Analyst
CLE / pass confidence / Rank 8

Both pitchers are fallback substitutes (Logan Allen and TBD). Model shows CLE at 55.6% vs market's 50% toss-up, but with no actual pitcher data, th...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates+110
CLECleveland Guardians-130
Pick Probability62%CLE moneyline
PITJared JonesConfirmed
CLEGavin WilliamsConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
CLE / pass confidence / Rank 7

Model has CLE at 62% vs market's 53%—a 9-point gap triggering market_disagreement_large. PIT's 7.0 RPG and .710 OPS are significantly better than C...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+135
SEASeattle Mariners-162
Pick Probability58%SEA moneyline
SFGLogan WebbConfirmed
SEABryan WooConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.5
Model pick
SEA moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
DETDetroit Tigers-208
LAALos Angeles Angels+172
Pick Probability58%DET moneyline
DETTarik SkubalProbable
LAAGrayson RodriguezProbable
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.3
AI Analyst
DET / strong confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

Clear comparison to DET. Skubal (3.09 ERA, 10.59 K/9, 0.95 WHIP in 75.7 IP) is elite; Rodriguez (7.55 ERA, 1.74 WHIP in 31 IP) is struggling badly....

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-07-18
Rank#1
DET at LAADetroit Tigers at Los Angeles Angels
AI Analyst PickDETstrong confidence
Agrees with modelDET / 58%Model pick probability

Clear comparison to DET. Skubal (3.09 ERA, 10.59 K/9, 0.95 WHIP in 75.7 IP) is elite; Rodriguez (7.55 ERA, 1.74 WHIP in 31 IP) is struggling badly. Model at 57.6% vs m...

Rank#2
TBR at BOSTampa Bay Rays at Boston Red Sox
AI Analyst PickTBRlean confidence
Agrees with modelTBR / 52%Model pick probability

TBR 56-40 vs BOS 48-48, superior offense (.802 OPS vs .736) despite lower RPG. Sandoval has only 4.3 IP over 10 starts—likely opener role, not traditional starter. Mod...

Rank#3
WSN at OAKWashington Nationals at Oakland Athletics
AI Analyst PickWSNlean confidence
Agrees with modelWSN / 55%Model pick probability

Model favors WSN at 54.9% but market has OAK at 53.3%—a small disagreement flag fires but the gap is actually modest. WSN's 6.9 RPG vs OAK's 2.5 RPG is a massive offen...

Rank#4
CHW at TORChicago White Sox at Toronto Blue Jays
AI Analyst PickCHWlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelTOR / 51%Model pick probability

Model sees a coin flip (50.8% TOR), market slightly favors CHW (51.6%). Bieber's 7.64 ERA in 17.7 IP is a real disaster; Martin's 3.41 in 100+ IP is legit. CHW's 5.1 R...

Rank#5
CIN at COLCincinnati Reds at Colorado Rockies
AI Analyst PickCINlean confidence
Agrees with modelCIN / 55%Model pick probability

Model has CIN 54.9%, market nearly even at 49.3% home. Coors inflates the total but model's 11.77 vs market 13.0 is a 1.23-run gap—model sees pitchers suppressing Coor...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

15 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
SDPSan Diego Padres-110
KCRKansas City Royals-108
Pick Probability63%KCR moneyline
SDPGriffin CanningConfirmed
KCRRandy DobnakConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total11.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context1.2
AI Analyst
KCR / pass confidence / Rank 6

Model has KCR at 63% vs market coin-flip, driven by Dobnak's 1.86 ERA in 9.7 IP (tiny sample). Canning's 6.47 ERA in 56 IP is real. Market total 11...

MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates-105
CLECleveland Guardians-112
Pick Probability63%CLE moneyline
PITMason MontgomeryConfirmed
CLELogan AllenConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context1.3
AI Analyst
CLE / pass confidence / Rank 8

Both pitchers are fallback substitutes (Logan Allen and TBD). Model shows CLE at 55.6% vs market's 50% toss-up, but with no actual pitcher data, th...

MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates+110
CLECleveland Guardians-130
Pick Probability62%CLE moneyline
PITJared JonesConfirmed
CLEGavin WilliamsConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
CLE / pass confidence / Rank 7

Model has CLE at 62% vs market's 53%—a 9-point gap triggering market_disagreement_large. PIT's 7.0 RPG and .710 OPS are significantly better than C...

MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+135
SEASeattle Mariners-162
Pick Probability58%SEA moneyline
SFGLogan WebbConfirmed
SEABryan WooConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.5
Model pick
SEA moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
DETDetroit Tigers-208
LAALos Angeles Angels+172
Pick Probability58%DET moneyline
DETTarik SkubalProbable
LAAGrayson RodriguezProbable
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.3
AI Analyst
DET / strong confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

Clear comparison to DET. Skubal (3.09 ERA, 10.59 K/9, 0.95 WHIP in 75.7 IP) is elite; Rodriguez (7.55 ERA, 1.74 WHIP in 31 IP) is struggling badly....

MLBMoneyline
Open
TEXTexas Rangers0
ATLAtlanta Braves-118
Pick Probability55%ATL moneyline
TEXMacKenzie GoreConfirmed
ATLOwen MurphyConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
ATL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets+142
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-172
Pick Probability55%PHI moneyline
NYMSean ManaeaConfirmed
PHIJesús LuzardoConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
PHI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CINCincinnati Reds-116
COLColorado Rockies+100
Pick Probability55%CIN moneyline
CINRhett LowderConfirmed
COLTomoyuki SuganoConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total12.5
Projected Total9.6
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
CIN / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model has CIN 54.9%, market nearly even at 49.3% home. Coors inflates the total but model's 11.77 vs market 13.0 is a 1.23-run gap—model sees pitch...

MLBMoneyline
Open
WSNWashington Nationals-110
OAKOakland Athletics-108
Pick Probability55%WSN moneyline
WSNZack LittellProbable
OAKJ.T. GinnProbable
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total11.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
WSN / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Model favors WSN at 54.9% but market has OAK at 53.3%—a small disagreement flag fires but the gap is actually modest. WSN's 6.9 RPG vs OAK's 2.5 RP...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MIAMiami Marlins+117
MILMilwaukee Brewers-138
Pick Probability54%MIL moneyline
MIAMax MeyerConfirmed
MILShane DrohanConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.0
Model pick
MIL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
TBRTampa Bay Rays-102
BOSBoston Red Sox-118
Pick Probability52%TBR moneyline
TBRIan SeymourConfirmed
BOSPatrick SandovalConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
TBR / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

TBR 56-40 vs BOS 48-48, superior offense (.802 OPS vs .736) despite lower RPG. Sandoval has only 4.3 IP over 10 starts—likely opener role, not trad...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MINMinnesota Twins+131
CHCChicago Cubs-157
Pick Probability51%CHC moneyline
MINTaj BradleyConfirmed
CHCMatthew BoydConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.2
Model pick
CHC moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles-110
HOUHouston Astros-110
Pick Probability51%HOU moneyline
BALTrevor RogersConfirmed
HOUSpencer ArrighettiConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.2
Model pick
HOU moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+100
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-118
Pick Probability51%ARI moneyline
STLDustin MayConfirmed
ARIBrandon PfaadtConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.2
Model pick
ARI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHWChicago White Sox-108
TORToronto Blue Jays-109
Pick Probability51%TOR moneyline
CHWDavis MartinConfirmed
TORShane BieberConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
CHW / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model sees a coin flip (50.8% TOR), market slightly favors CHW (51.6%). Bieber's 7.64 ERA in 17.7 IP is a real disaster; Martin's 3.41 in 100+ IP i...

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