MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-09-18 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag fanatics
KCR at PIT Sep 18, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRandy Dobnak KCR starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +110 bovada / U -117 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% under
O 2.5 78% under
O 3.5 59% under
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Paul Skenes PIT starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +110 betonlineag / U -135 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 69% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 21% over
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
CHC at CIN Sep 18, 4:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastClay Holmes CHC starter / away
Projected K 5.0 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -104 fanduel / U -114 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 55% under
O 5.5 38% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Chase Burns CIN starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -127 draftkings / U +110 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 78%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 63% under
O 5.5 47% under
O 6.5 32% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
MIL at BAL Sep 18, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDustin May MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +100 bovada / U -111 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 26%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% over
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Cade Povich BAL starter / home
Projected K 3.6 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -150 bovada / U +132 betonlineag 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 69% over
O 3.5 48% under
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
BOS at TBR Sep 18, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRanger Suarez BOS starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 fanatics / U -142 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 33% over
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Ian Seymour TBR starter / home
Projected K 6.6 Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -135 betonlineag / U +110 bovada 4 books at this line
Model over 5.5 63%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 88% over
O 4.5 77% over
O 5.5 63% under
O 6.5 49% under
O 7.5 35% under
O 8.5 23% under
O 9.5 14% under
O 10.5 8% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
OAK at CLE Sep 18, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMason Barnett OAK starter / away
Projected K 3.2 Actual 4 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -120 betmgm / U +106 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 2.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% over
O 2.5 61% over
O 3.5 39% over
O 4.5 22% under
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Daniel Espino CLE starter / home
Projected K 2.7 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 74% under
O 2.5 49% under
O 3.5 28% under
O 4.5 14% under
O 5.5 6% under
O 6.5 2% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
PHI at NYM Sep 18, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTim Mayza PHI starter / away
Projected K 2.6 Actual 0 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 72% under
O 2.5 47% under
O 3.5 26% under
O 4.5 12% under
O 5.5 5% under
O 6.5 2% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Zac Thornton NYM starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -153 draftkings / U +124 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% over
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
DET at CHW Sep 18, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAndrew Sears DET starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 0 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +117 betonlineag / U -133 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% under
O 2.5 81% under
O 3.5 63% under
O 4.5 45% under
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
David Sandlin CHW starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +122 fanduel / U -156 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 76% over
O 3.5 58% over
O 4.5 39% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
TOR at TEX Sep 18, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDylan Cease TOR starter / away
Projected K 6.9 Actual 3 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +112 fanduel / U -130 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 90% under
O 4.5 80% under
O 5.5 67% under
O 6.5 53% under
O 7.5 39% under
O 8.5 27% under
O 9.5 17% under
O 10.5 10% under
O 11.5 6% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Kumar Rocker TEX starter / home
Projected K 4.7 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -114 betonlineag / U +107 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 68%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% under
O 3.5 68% under
O 4.5 50% under
O 5.5 33% under
O 6.5 20% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
ATL at HOU Sep 18, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTyler Mahle ATL starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +100 bovada / U -120 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% over
O 5.5 42% over
O 6.5 27% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Peter Lambert HOU starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -130 bovada / U +112 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 61%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% over
O 5.5 44% over
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 18% under
O 8.5 10% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
SEA at COL Sep 18, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBryan Woo SEA starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -143 betonlineag / U +120 fanatics 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 53% under
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Gabriel Hughes COL starter / home
Projected K 3.9 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +100 betmgm / U -110 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 55% over
O 4.5 36% over
O 5.5 21% over
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
WSN at STL Sep 18, 6:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCade Cavalli WSN starter / away
Projected K 5.6 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -108 draftkings / U +105 betmgm 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 64% over
O 5.5 48% over
O 6.5 33% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Kyle Leahy STL starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -125 fanatics / U +107 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 2.5 80%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% under
O 2.5 80% under
O 3.5 62% under
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
MIN at LAA Sep 18, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastConnor Prielipp MIN starter / away
Projected K 5.5 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -144 draftkings / U +128 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 78% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 46% over
O 6.5 31% over
O 7.5 20% over
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Grayson Rodriguez LAA starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -130 bovada / U +110 fanatics 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 57% under
O 5.5 40% under
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
MIA at SDP Sep 18, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTyler Phillips MIA starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +100 betonlineag / U -107 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 54% under
O 4.5 35% under
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Nick Pivetta SDP starter / home
Projected K 4.9 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -154 betonlineag / U +130 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 54%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 54% under
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 24% under
O 7.5 14% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
NYY at ARI Sep 18, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastGerrit Cole NYY starter / away
Projected K 4.4 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 betmgm / U -104 fanduel 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 63% over
O 4.5 45% over
O 5.5 29% over
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Eduardo Rodriguez ARI starter / home
Projected K 6.0 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -137 betonlineag / U +110 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 70%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 83% over
O 4.5 70% over
O 5.5 54% under
O 6.5 39% under
O 7.5 26% under
O 8.5 16% under
O 9.5 9% under
O 10.5 5% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
SFG at LAD Sep 18, 8:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCesar Perdomo SFG starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Actual 1 K / Under 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -145 betmgm / U +122 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 2.5 68%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% under
O 2.5 68% under
O 3.5 48% under
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Tyler Glasnow LAD starter / home
Projected K 6.3 Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -130 draftkings / U +120 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 86% over
O 4.5 74% over
O 5.5 59% over
O 6.5 44% over
O 7.5 30% over
O 8.5 20% over
O 9.5 12% over
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.