Ranked picks with source labels.

Model sees ATL at 66.2% vs market's 57.2% — a 9-point gap triggering market_disagreement_large. Holmes (3.79 ERA, 97.3 IP) vs Irvin (5.23 ERA, 51.7...

Model picks SEA 55.2% but market has LAD at 58.3%—an 8pp gap triggering market_disagreement_large. LAD is 68-40 vs SEA 53-56; model picking the wor...

Model has TEX 51% but market has TBR 59% — an 8-point gap favoring the home side. McClanahan (3.09 ERA, 96 IP) is a legitimate ace while Winn (6.11...

Model has CHC at 51.3%, market at 48.3% — essentially a coin flip. Cubs' 6.8 RPG vs STL's 3.0 RPG is a massive offensive comparison. Model's 9.32 t...

Model and market converge on a coin flip (model 50.8% NYY, market 48.4% NYY). Burke's 3.19 ERA in 118 IP is solid but CHW offense at 4.8 RPG vs NYY...