Ranked picks with source labels.

Baltimore starter is TBD; without knowing the matchup cannot evaluate comparison. Warren's 4.1 IP across 10 starts signals extreme bullpen game usa...

Model loves TEX at 58.6% while market has DET -114 (52.2% implied). The 6.4pp gap fires market_disagreement_large but the model picks the worse tea...

Model picks CHW at 58.6%, market has 42.3% - large disagreement flag fires. Away pitcher Schultz on fallback data creates structural uncertainty. M...

Model at 58.1% vs market 58.3% on SEA – convergence is good. T-Mobile Park (0.855 PF) + Woo's elite 3.00 ERA/0.83 WHIP vs Ragans' 9.00 ERA/2.50 WHI...

McClanahan has null ERA/IP/K9 despite 10 starts—data issue makes evaluating ace matchup impossible. Model picks worse team (SFG 13-18, .388 OPS) by...

Model has WSN at 57.5% but market implies MIL at 60%. MIL's .972 OPS and 5.7 RPG offense clearly superior to WSN's .820/.5.4. Misiorowski's 19.8 K/...

Market has ATL at 63% implied, model at 57%. Coors' 1.47 PF drives model total to 9.15 vs market 11.0—a 1.85-run gap. Model systematically underwei...

TBD starter for BOS creates unknowable matchup dynamic. Model leans HOU 55.7% vs market 46.9% implied—material gap with structural uncertainty. Bur...

Model predicts 9.64 runs vs market 8.0; that 1.64-run gap is a red flag. Keller's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is extreme small-sample noise—unclear if this is...

Wheeler fallback data (6.0 IP, 0.00 ERA) is unreliable for handicapping. Pérez at 7.0 IP/10 GS is also too small a sample to trust. Model sees PHI...

Model likes LAD at 55% vs market's 62%. Sheehan's 10.8 ERA in 3.1 IP is tiny sample noise (16.2 K/9 suggests talent). Liberatore's 1.8 ERA also sma...

Model total of 9.0 runs is 2 runs above market's 7.0 in a pitcher-friendly park (PF 0.95). Gallen's 9.0 ERA in 4 IP is a tiny sample; the market kn...

Urena has 1.2 IP across 2 starts—effectively no data. Scott is on fallback stats with 5.0 IP and 7.20 ERA over 10 starts, which is implausible and...