Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has WSN at 58.6% but market implies a near coin flip (SFG 51.6%). Griffin's 3.63 ERA over 72 IP is solid; Ray's 4.12 ERA and 1.4 WHIP in Orac...

Ohtani (0.74 ERA, 0.79 WHIP in 61 IP) is legitimately elite; Jones has 9.3 IP across 10 starts—severe small-sample noise. Model at 58.6% vs market...

CHW pitcher is TBD fallback (5 GS, 14.7 IP, 4.30 ERA). Sale is elite: 72.7 IP, 2.23 ERA, 10.65 K/9. Market has ATL -145 (58.5% implied), model says...

Model predicts 9.51 runs at Coors (PF 1.47), market sets 12.5. That 3-run gap is the park adjustment failing: model underweights extreme venue effe...

Model at 58.1% vs market 57.9% — near-perfect convergence on TBR. Bennett's 10.3 IP sample (2 GS) is nowhere near reliable; 3.48 K/9 is worrying. R...

Model likes CLE 58% but market has it 52%, nearly a coin flip. Rodón's 2.88 ERA in only 25 IP (2.5 starts) is thin data; Messick's 2.40 in 75 IP is...

Model has OAK at 58% but market is dead even at 50%. MIL is 41-24 scoring 8.3 RPG with .972 OPS vs OAK 32-35 at 5.6 RPG with .512 OPS. Perkins 6.19...

Model has ARI 55.7%, market has ARI 52.2% — modest comparison. Gusto's 10.8 ERA in 5.0 IP is a disaster, but tiny sample (half a start's worth). Ne...

Model picks MIN at 58.6% but market has DET at 60.8%. Away pitcher is TBD fallback (team's recent starter avg: 4.02 ERA, 10.11 K/9). Valdez's 4.21...