Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has ARI at 64% but market only 55% — a 9-point gap flags structural overconfidence. LAA offense is vastly superior (5.8 RPG, .860 OPS vs 2.7...

Model has CIN at 64% vs market 56%, an 8-point gap flagged as large disagreement. Burns' 2.14 ERA in 75.7 IP is legit, but Myers' 4.05 ERA in only...

Away pitcher is TBD with fallback stats, making both side and total unreliable. STL's 6.7 RPG vs SDP's 4.1 RPG is a wide offensive gap, but model o...

Model favors LAD at 60.2% vs market 58.8%, but Lauer's 5.47 ERA in 52.7 IP is a clear weakness against TBR's .802 OPS offense. Martinez (2.43 ERA,...

Model predicts 8.97 runs vs market 11.0, a 2-run gap. Ginn's 3.15 ERA in 71 IP is solid, Jones in only 13 IP is noisy. Hitter park argues over but...