Ranked picks with source labels.

Model picks KCR at 58% but market has CHW at 55%, a 13-point disagreement. KCR's offense is historically poor (.518 OPS, 2.0 RPG) yet model leans r...

Model has OAK 58.3%, market implies 53.3% — modest 5pt comparison. The real story is the total: model projects 7.82, market set at 9.5, a 1.7-run g...

ATL implied at 71% by Pinnacle vs model's 58%. Chris Sale (2.14 ERA, 10.61 K/9) is dominant; SFG offense is league-worst at 1.4 RPG/.388 OPS. Model...

Model has LAD at 58%, market at 55% — mild convergence. The 9.85 total is nearly 2 runs above market's 8.0 at Petco (PF 0.962), a known pitcher par...

Model underweights TBR comparison: Rasmussen 2.62 ERA vs Kelly 5.71 ERA is a massive SP mismatch. Market at 63.2% implied reflects this; model at 5...

Model likes TEX at 53.4% but market has TOR at 54.8%. Bieber's 9.82 ERA in 3.7 IP is catastrophic small sample; he's working back from injury. Rock...

Model has BAL 51.7%, market 63.1% — an 11.4pp gap flags structural miss. Model total 7.44 vs market 9.0 is massive (1.56 runs). Bradish 3.64 ERA in...

Model total of 7.99 is 1.5 runs below market's 9.5, triggering total_far_from_market. Phillips' 3.09 ERA over 58 IP is solid; Leahy's 4.24 ERA and...

Model sees coin flip (50.6% HOU), market leans HOU harder (-126 implies 55.8%). Hunter Brown's 1.40 ERA in 19.3 IP is extreme small sample; Flahert...

Model sees coin flip (50.6% NYY), market agrees (51.6% BOS). Gray's 2.95 ERA in 76 IP is legitimate, Rodón's peripherals (10 K/9) are strong. Model...