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Top Spotlight / MLB / Moneyline

BAL at TBR

BAL moneyline leads the current board at 61%. Market odds are shown as context beside the model number.

BALBaltimore Orioles61%
TBRTampa Bay Rays39%
Open matchupView top picks
Spotlight game / By the numbers
Pick probability61%
Closing odds+125
Game time
VenueTropicana Field · St. Petersburg, FL
BAL starterTrevor Rogers
TBR starterFreddy Peralta
Top pick of 16 on 2026-08-16Open matchup
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MLB real data.Moneyline is live with pitcher, projection, and market context.

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-08-16
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles+125
TBRTampa Bay Rays-148
Pick Probability61%BAL moneyline
BALTrevor RogersConfirmed
TBRFreddy PeraltaConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.6
Margin Context1.8
AI Analyst
TBR / standard confidence / Rank 6 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model takes BAL despite a 60-63 record and .662 OPS against TBR's 74-48 and .802 OPS at 6.0 RPG — a clear offense/defense mismatch, so side with th...

Updated Edge and EV held
#2MLBMoneyline
Open
SDPSan Diego Padres-112
CLECleveland Guardians-105
Pick Probability61%SDP moneyline
SDPCasey MizeConfirmed
CLETanner BibeeConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.5
Margin Context1.7
AI Analyst
SDP / lean confidence / Rank 8 / Agrees with model

Market is a pick'em (implied 49.3% home) while the model has SDP at 61.4% — a 12-point gap I can't justify. Mize (3.38 ERA, 8.63 K/9, 1.09 WHIP) is...

Updated Edge and EV held
#3MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-112
MINMinnesota Twins-104
Pick Probability58%PHI moneyline
PHIAndrew PainterConfirmed
MINDean KremerConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.4
Margin Context1.2
Model pick
PHI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Updated Edge and EV held
#4MLBMoneyline
Open
KCRKansas City Royals-122
LAALos Angeles Angels+104
Pick Probability58%KCR moneyline
KCRNoah CameronConfirmed
LAARyan JohnsonConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context1.4
Model pick
KCR moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Updated Edge and EV held
#5MLBMoneyline
Open
BOSBoston Red Sox-111
PITPittsburgh Pirates-106
Pick Probability57%PIT moneyline
BOSPatrick SandovalConfirmed
PITLake BacharConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
BOS / lean confidence / Rank 9 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has PIT at 56.8% vs market's 48.1% implied — a 9-point gap in favor of the club with the worse record (60-65) and worse offense (4.1 RPG, .71...

Updated Edge and EV held

MLB Board

Real MLB moneyline predictions with market context

MarketAll marketsMoneyline
ProbabilityGame time
15 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles+125
TBRTampa Bay Rays-148
Pick Probability61%BAL moneyline
BALTrevor RogersConfirmed
TBRFreddy PeraltaConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.6
Margin Context1.8
AI Analyst
TBR / standard confidence / Rank 6 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model takes BAL despite a 60-63 record and .662 OPS against TBR's 74-48 and .802 OPS at 6.0 RPG — a clear offense/defense mismatch, so side with th...

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
SDPSan Diego Padres-112
CLECleveland Guardians-105
Pick Probability61%SDP moneyline
SDPCasey MizeConfirmed
CLETanner BibeeConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.5
Margin Context1.7
AI Analyst
SDP / lean confidence / Rank 8 / Agrees with model

Market is a pick'em (implied 49.3% home) while the model has SDP at 61.4% — a 12-point gap I can't justify. Mize (3.38 ERA, 8.63 K/9, 1.09 WHIP) is...

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-112
MINMinnesota Twins-104
Pick Probability58%PHI moneyline
PHIAndrew PainterConfirmed
MINDean KremerConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.4
Margin Context1.2
Model pick
PHI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
KCRKansas City Royals-122
LAALos Angeles Angels+104
Pick Probability58%KCR moneyline
KCRNoah CameronConfirmed
LAARyan JohnsonConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context1.4
Model pick
KCR moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
BOSBoston Red Sox-111
PITPittsburgh Pirates-106
Pick Probability57%PIT moneyline
BOSPatrick SandovalConfirmed
PITLake BacharConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
BOS / lean confidence / Rank 9 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has PIT at 56.8% vs market's 48.1% implied — a 9-point gap in favor of the club with the worse record (60-65) and worse offense (4.1 RPG, .71...

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+108
ATLAtlanta Braves-126
Pick Probability57%ATL moneyline
ARIMichael SorokaConfirmed
ATLBryce ElderConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.5
Model pick
ATL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
MILMilwaukee Brewers+160
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-192
Pick Probability56%LAD moneyline
MILLogan HendersonConfirmed
LADTarik SkubalConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
LAD / standard confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

Both starters are elite: Skubal 2.93 ERA/0.93 WHIP over 107.7 IP, Henderson 2.88/0.91 with 11.0 K/9. Model's 8.82 total sits 1.8 runs above the 7.0...

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
COLColorado Rockies+112
SFGSan Francisco Giants-128
Pick Probability55%SFG moneyline
COLGabriel HughesConfirmed
SFGBlade TidwellConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
SFG / standard confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model (55.1%) and market (55.2%) align on SFG, so no comparison dispute on the side; Tidwell's 2.78 ERA over 4 starts is thin but Hughes at 5.61 ER...

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
SEASeattle Mariners+110
HOUHouston Astros-127
Pick Probability55%HOU moneyline
SEABryan WooConfirmed
HOUHunter BrownConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.8
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
HOU / standard confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Model (55.1%) and market (55.4% implied) agree on Houston, so the side is uncontroversial. The total is the disagreement: 9.07 predicted against a...

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
NYYNew York Yankees+107
TORToronto Blue Jays-127
Pick Probability53%TOR moneyline
NYYRyan WeathersConfirmed
TORDylan CeaseConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total6.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.0
AI Analyst
TOR / standard confidence / Rank 4 / Agrees with model

Model (52.9%) and market (53.1%) agree on Toronto, so no comparison dispute on the side. Cease's 2.40 ERA and 13.09 K/9 against a Yankees offense a...

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
WSNWashington Nationals+140
NYMNew York Mets-165
Pick Probability53%NYM moneyline
WSNJake IrvinConfirmed
NYMChristian ScottConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.0
Model pick
NYM moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
CHWChicago White Sox+102
DETDetroit Tigers-117
Pick Probability53%DET moneyline
CHWSean BurkeConfirmed
DETDrew AndersonConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.0
Model pick
DET moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+150
CHCChicago Cubs-178
Pick Probability53%CHC moneyline
STLHunter DobbinsConfirmed
CHCEdward CabreraConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.1
Model pick
CHC moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
MIAMiami Marlins-125
CINCincinnati Reds+106
Pick Probability53%CIN moneyline
MIAEury PérezConfirmed
CINNick LodoloConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
MIA / standard confidence / Rank 2 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model picks CIN despite worse record (59-63), 3.4 RPG and .629 OPS versus Miami's 4.5 RPG and .774 OPS - the offense/defense mismatch flag is doing...

Updated Edge and EV held
MLBMoneyline
Open
TEXTexas Rangers-132
OAKOakland Athletics+114
Pick Probability53%TEX moneyline
TEXCody BradfordConfirmed
OAKJacob LopezConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
TEX / lean confidence / Rank 7 / Agrees with model

Model's 52.8% on TEX sits below the market's ~55.7%, so no comparison to exploit; TEX is the better club by record but scores only 3.4 RPG. Bradfor...

Updated Edge and EV held
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