AM at IM

Model 67.9% and market 69.7% converge on LAD, so no real comparison, just a defensible side. Skubal's 2.85 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and 10.69 K/9 over 113.7...

Model's 61% on BAL is 15 points above the market's 45.6% implied, and the mismatch flag fires: Tampa is 76-52 with a .802 OPS versus Baltimore's 62...

Model at 56.9% is below the market's 62% on MIL, and here I side with the market: Milwaukee's 5.7 RPG and .972 OPS dwarf Atlanta's 2.8 RPG, and Hen...

Bibee (4.01 ERA, 1.15 WHIP over 150.1 IP) is the clear pitching comparison over Hughes (6.69 ERA, 1.38 WHIP in 37.2 IP), and market agrees at -138....

Painter's 6.43 ERA and 1.55 WHIP in 85.1 IP is a genuine liability, yet PHI is priced -146; STL's 0.812 OPS and 5.6 RPG travel well into a 1.148 pa...

Model and market both land at 51.6% on SEA, so no comparison there. Peterson's 5.29 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over 112.1 IP is the one real lever for Seatt...

Model has WSN at 50.5% against a market implying 62.3% home, a large gap I can't justify. Perez (3.23 ERA, 9.76 K/9, 1.11 WHIP) is clearly ahead of...