Top Spotlight / MLB / Moneyline
PIT at LAD
LAD moneyline leads the current board at 70%. Market odds are shown as context beside the model number.
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Model (69.6%) and market (71.6%) converge on LAD, so no real comparison either way; take the side without conviction. Snell's 12.0 K/9 is strong bu...
Why this pick? Model probability is 66% for Barça win. Expected goals sit at 0.9-2.2.
Edge and EV held for audit.
Why this pick? Model probability is 63% for PSG win. Expected goals sit at 2.1-1.0.
Edge and EV held for audit.
Why this pick? Model probability is 63% for Juventus win. Expected goals sit at 0.9-2.0.
Edge and EV held for audit.
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Model (69.6%) and market (71.6%) converge on LAD, so no real comparison either way; take the side without conviction. Snell's 12.0 K/9 is strong bu...
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Model takes ATL despite Atlanta owning the worse record (75-55 vs 81-49) and a far weaker offense (2.5 RPG, .789 OPS vs 5.9 RPG, .972 OPS) — the of...
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Model's 53.3% for STL against a market implying 66.7% home is a 13-point gap I can't justify. Sanchez (2.51 ERA, 10.41 K/9 over 161.2 IP) is the cl...
Griffin (3.18 ERA, 8.17 K/9, 1.11 WHIP over 144.1 IP) is a clear step up on Sugano (4.70 ERA, 5.23 K/9), and the market's -165 on CLE looks better...
Market at 59.5% on Miami versus the model's 51.6% — the market is likely right here, with Washington starting Jackson Kent (2 GS, 7.7 IP, 9.39 ERA,...
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Model (51.6%) and market (50.2%) both call this a coin flip; SEA's .793 OPS at home versus CHC's .694 is the only real separator, so lean only. The...