MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-05-04 / 12 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-05-04
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles+195
NYYNew York Yankees-240
Pick Probability63%NYY moneyline
BALShane Baz
NYYCam Schlittler
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context1.2
AI Analyst
NYY / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

Model at 62.9% vs market at 68.4% — meaningful gap favoring BAL value. Schlittler's missing stats raise uncertainty despite 10 starts logged. BAL's...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets-144
COLColorado Rockies+123
Pick Probability59%NYM moneyline
NYMHuascar Brazobán
COLTomoyuki Sugano
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.5
Projected Total9.5
Margin Context1.6
AI Analyst
NYM / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Away pitcher TBD kills confidence but NYM's .736 OPS vs COL's .531 is decisive. Model at 58.6% vs market 56.4% shows convergence. Extreme Coors par...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-114
MIAMiami Marlins-104
Pick Probability59%PHI moneyline
PHIAaron Nola
MIAJanson Junk
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.3
Model pick
PHI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
CHWChicago White Sox+134
LAALos Angeles Angels-159
Pick Probability58%LAA moneyline
CHWDavis Martin
LAAJosé Soriano
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
LAA / pass confidence / Rank 9

Away pitcher Davis Martin has null stats across all categories despite 10 starts flagged as 'full' data—a critical data integrity issue. Model proj...

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
MILMilwaukee Brewers-118
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+100
Pick Probability58%STL moneyline
MILChad Patrick
STLKyle Leahy
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
STL / pass confidence / Rank 6

Model has STL 57.5% vs market 48%. Chad Patrick shows 2.08 ERA in just 4.1 IP—extreme small sample noise. Kyle Leahy's missing season stats are a m...

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-05-04
Rank#1
LAD at HOULos Angeles Dodgers at Houston Astros
AI Analyst PickLADstrong confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelHOU / 58%Model pick probability

Model has HOU at 57.5% vs market's 35.5% — a 22-point gap, the largest disagreement type. Okert has 2.2 IP across 4 'starts' (opener role), not a true starter. Yamamot...

Rank#2
BAL at NYYBaltimore Orioles at New York Yankees
AI Analyst PickNYYlean confidence
Agrees with modelNYY / 63%Model pick probability

Model at 62.9% vs market at 68.4% — meaningful gap favoring BAL value. Schlittler's missing stats raise uncertainty despite 10 starts logged. BAL's 15-19 record and 5....

Rank#3
NYM at COLNew York Mets at Colorado Rockies
AI Analyst PickNYMlean confidence
Agrees with modelNYM / 59%Model pick probability

Away pitcher TBD kills confidence but NYM's .736 OPS vs COL's .531 is decisive. Model at 58.6% vs market 56.4% shows convergence. Extreme Coors park factor (1.47) driv...

Rank#4
ATL at SEAAtlanta Braves at Seattle Mariners
AI Analyst PickATLlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelSEA / 58%Model pick probability

Model has SEA 60.2% vs market 57.5%, but ATL is 25-10 with 6.2 RPG while SEA is 16-19 at 4.7 RPG. Ritchie data missing is a major blind spot. T-Mobile Park factor 0.85...

Rank#5
CIN at CHCCincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs
AI Analyst PickCHClean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelCHC / 54%Model pick probability

Model likes CIN at 57% but market has CHC at 65% implied. Petty data is fallback quality which undermines CIN case. Model total of 9.13 is 2.4 runs below market 11.5—e...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

12 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles+195
NYYNew York Yankees-240
Pick Probability63%NYY moneyline
BALShane Baz
NYYCam Schlittler
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context1.2
AI Analyst
NYY / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

Model at 62.9% vs market at 68.4% — meaningful gap favoring BAL value. Schlittler's missing stats raise uncertainty despite 10 starts logged. BAL's...

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets-144
COLColorado Rockies+123
Pick Probability59%NYM moneyline
NYMHuascar Brazobán
COLTomoyuki Sugano
Market OddsPregame
Market Total10.5
Projected Total9.5
Margin Context1.6
AI Analyst
NYM / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Away pitcher TBD kills confidence but NYM's .736 OPS vs COL's .531 is decisive. Model at 58.6% vs market 56.4% shows convergence. Extreme Coors par...

MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-114
MIAMiami Marlins-104
Pick Probability59%PHI moneyline
PHIAaron Nola
MIAJanson Junk
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context1.3
Model pick
PHI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHWChicago White Sox+134
LAALos Angeles Angels-159
Pick Probability58%LAA moneyline
CHWDavis Martin
LAAJosé Soriano
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
LAA / pass confidence / Rank 9

Away pitcher Davis Martin has null stats across all categories despite 10 starts flagged as 'full' data—a critical data integrity issue. Model proj...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MILMilwaukee Brewers-118
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+100
Pick Probability58%STL moneyline
MILChad Patrick
STLKyle Leahy
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
STL / pass confidence / Rank 6

Model has STL 57.5% vs market 48%. Chad Patrick shows 2.08 ERA in just 4.1 IP—extreme small sample noise. Kyle Leahy's missing season stats are a m...

MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-205
HOUHouston Astros+170
Pick Probability58%HOU moneyline
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto
HOUSteven Okert
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
LAD / strong confidence / Rank 1 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has HOU at 57.5% vs market's 35.5% — a 22-point gap, the largest disagreement type. Okert has 2.2 IP across 4 'starts' (opener role), not a t...

MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves+130
SEASeattle Mariners-154
Pick Probability58%SEA moneyline
ATLJR Ritchie
SEALogan Gilbert
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
ATL / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has SEA 60.2% vs market 57.5%, but ATL is 25-10 with 6.2 RPG while SEA is 16-19 at 4.7 RPG. Ritchie data missing is a major blind spot. T-Mob...

MLBMoneyline
Open
TORToronto Blue Jays+102
TBRTampa Bay Rays-123
Pick Probability57%TOR moneyline
TOREric Lauer
TBRNick Martinez
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.9
AI Analyst
TOR / pass confidence / Rank 8

Away pitcher is TBD and Martinez has null stats despite 10 starts. Structural data gaps make both moneyline and total unreadable. Model disagrees w...

MLBMoneyline
Open
SDPSan Diego Padres-145
SFGSan Francisco Giants+122
Pick Probability55%SDP moneyline
SDPRandy Vásquez
SFGTrevor McDonald
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.7
Model pick
SDP moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
BOSBoston Red Sox+194
DETDetroit Tigers-234
Pick Probability54%DET moneyline
BOSPayton Tolle
DETTyler Holton
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
DET / pass confidence / Rank 7

Away pitcher has zero resolved stats (fallback data). Model has DET at 60% vs market's 68%; model total is 8.89 vs market 7.0—a 1.89 run gap. Witho...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CINCincinnati Reds+171
CHCChicago Cubs-206
Pick Probability54%CHC moneyline
CINChase Petty
CHCEdward Cabrera
Market OddsPregame
Market Total11.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
CHC / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model likes CIN at 57% but market has CHC at 65% implied. Petty data is fallback quality which undermines CIN case. Model total of 9.13 is 2.4 runs...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CLECleveland Guardians+105
KCRKansas City Royals-125
Pick Probability54%KCR moneyline
CLETanner Bibee
KCRMichael Wacha
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.1
Model pick
KCR moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

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