MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-05-08 / 15 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-05-08
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
MINMinnesota Twins+125
CLECleveland Guardians-150
Pick Probability59%CLE moneyline
MINConnor Prielipp
CLEParker Messick
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
CLE / pass confidence / Rank 10

Model has CLE 58.9%, market 57.5% — minimal comparison. Both pitchers lack resolved season stats (ERA, WHIP, K/9 all null), making pitcher evaluati...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
SEASeattle Mariners-139
CHWChicago White Sox+118
Pick Probability59%SEA moneyline
SEAEmerson Hancock
CHWSean Burke
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context1.3
AI Analyst
SEA / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Agrees with model

Model SEA 58.6% vs market 55.4% is mild convergence. Hancock's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is extreme small-sample noise, not predictive. Burke's 6.75 ERA in...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
CHCChicago Cubs-139
TEXTexas Rangers+116
Pick Probability59%CHC moneyline
CHCBen Brown
TEXKumar Rocker
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context1.2
AI Analyst
CHC / standard confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

CHC 26-12 vs TEX 17-20, market and model converge on Cubs ~58-59%. Rocker's missing stats are a data gap but TEX's 2.7 RPG offense is league-worst....

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets-136
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+115
Pick Probability59%NYM moneyline
NYMNolan McLean
ARIRyne Nelson
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context1.4
AI Analyst
NYM / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model and market converge on NYM slight favorite (model 58.6%, market 56.1%). Nelson's 7.71 ERA in 4.2 IP per start signals durability issues; NYM'...

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros+118
CINCincinnati Reds-139
Pick Probability58%CIN moneyline
HOUMike Burrows
CINNick Lodolo
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
CIN / lean confidence / Rank 8 / Agrees with model

Model has CIN 58.1%, market implies 55.6% — close alignment. HOU offense (.695 OPS, 4.1 RPG) superior to CIN (.629 OPS, 3.8 RPG) but Burrows' 7.94...

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-05-08
Rank#1
ATL at LADAtlanta Braves at Los Angeles Dodgers
AI Analyst PickATLstrong confidence
Agrees with modelATL / 52%Model pick probability

Sheehan's 10.8 ERA over 3.1 IP is catastrophic small sample—likely opener or injury return. Sale's 0.0 ERA in 6.0 IP equally noisy but ATL offense (5.3 RPG, .789 OPS)...

Rank#2
CHC at TEXChicago Cubs at Texas Rangers
AI Analyst PickCHCstandard confidence
Agrees with modelCHC / 59%Model pick probability

CHC 26-12 vs TEX 17-20, market and model converge on Cubs ~58-59%. Rocker's missing stats are a data gap but TEX's 2.7 RPG offense is league-worst. Model's 9.31 total...

Rank#3
PIT at SFGPittsburgh Pirates at San Francisco Giants
AI Analyst PickPITlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelSFG / 51%Model pick probability

Model's 9.13 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.63-run structural miss. SFG starter is TBD fallback, Oracle runs at 0.91 PF, and SFG offense is catastrophic (2.4 RPG, .388 OPS...

Rank#4
NYY at MILNew York Yankees at Milwaukee Brewers
AI Analyst PickMILlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelNYY / 53%Model pick probability

Model has NYY 53% but market shows MIL +115 (46% implied), a 7-point gap favoring the home side the model underrates. Fried's 0.00 ERA in 6.1 IP is extreme small-sampl...

Rank#5
NYM at ARINew York Mets at Arizona Diamondbacks
AI Analyst PickNYMlean confidence
Agrees with modelNYM / 59%Model pick probability

Model and market converge on NYM slight favorite (model 58.6%, market 56.1%). Nelson's 7.71 ERA in 4.2 IP per start signals durability issues; NYM's .736 OPS creates m...

Rank#6
SEA at CHWSeattle Mariners at Chicago White Sox
AI Analyst PickSEAlean confidence
Agrees with modelSEA / 59%Model pick probability

Model SEA 58.6% vs market 55.4% is mild convergence. Hancock's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is extreme small-sample noise, not predictive. Burke's 6.75 ERA in 4 IP equally meaning...

Rank#7
LAA at TORLos Angeles Angels at Toronto Blue Jays
AI Analyst PickTORlean confidence
Agrees with modelTOR / 57%Model pick probability

Model has TOR 57% vs market 60%, reasonable convergence. Cease's 20.25 K/9 over 5.1 IP is extreme small sample—likely regresses but still strong today. Detmers' 5.79 E...

Rank#8
HOU at CINHouston Astros at Cincinnati Reds
AI Analyst PickCINlean confidence
Agrees with modelCIN / 58%Model pick probability

Model has CIN 58.1%, market implies 55.6% — close alignment. HOU offense (.695 OPS, 4.1 RPG) superior to CIN (.629 OPS, 3.8 RPG) but Burrows' 7.94 ERA in 5.2 IP is bru...

Rank#9
COL at PHIColorado Rockies at Philadelphia Phillies
AI Analyst PickPHIlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelCOL / 55%Model pick probability

Market has PHI at 66%, model has COL at 55%. Dollander has null stats (data_quality=full but no IP/ERA). Luzardo's 9.0 ERA in 6 IP is tiny sample. Market knows more he...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

15 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
MINMinnesota Twins+125
CLECleveland Guardians-150
Pick Probability59%CLE moneyline
MINConnor Prielipp
CLEParker Messick
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
CLE / pass confidence / Rank 10

Model has CLE 58.9%, market 57.5% — minimal comparison. Both pitchers lack resolved season stats (ERA, WHIP, K/9 all null), making pitcher evaluati...

MLBMoneyline
Open
SEASeattle Mariners-139
CHWChicago White Sox+118
Pick Probability59%SEA moneyline
SEAEmerson Hancock
CHWSean Burke
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context1.3
AI Analyst
SEA / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Agrees with model

Model SEA 58.6% vs market 55.4% is mild convergence. Hancock's 0.00 ERA in 6 IP is extreme small-sample noise, not predictive. Burke's 6.75 ERA in...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHCChicago Cubs-139
TEXTexas Rangers+116
Pick Probability59%CHC moneyline
CHCBen Brown
TEXKumar Rocker
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context1.2
AI Analyst
CHC / standard confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

CHC 26-12 vs TEX 17-20, market and model converge on Cubs ~58-59%. Rocker's missing stats are a data gap but TEX's 2.7 RPG offense is league-worst....

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets-136
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+115
Pick Probability59%NYM moneyline
NYMNolan McLean
ARIRyne Nelson
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context1.4
AI Analyst
NYM / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model and market converge on NYM slight favorite (model 58.6%, market 56.1%). Nelson's 7.71 ERA in 4.2 IP per start signals durability issues; NYM'...

MLBMoneyline
Open
HOUHouston Astros+118
CINCincinnati Reds-139
Pick Probability58%CIN moneyline
HOUMike Burrows
CINNick Lodolo
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
CIN / lean confidence / Rank 8 / Agrees with model

Model has CIN 58.1%, market implies 55.6% — close alignment. HOU offense (.695 OPS, 4.1 RPG) superior to CIN (.629 OPS, 3.8 RPG) but Burrows' 7.94...

MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+128
SDPSan Diego Padres-152
Pick Probability58%SDP moneyline
STLMichael McGreevy
SDPGriffin Canning
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.6
AI Analyst
SDP / pass confidence / Rank 11

Model and market converge at ~58% SDP, but McGreevy's 0.00 ERA in 6.0 IP is pure noise over 10 starts. Canning's missing stats prevent proper evalu...

MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics+116
BALBaltimore Orioles-139
Pick Probability58%BAL moneyline
OAKJacob Lopez
BALKyle Bradish
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
BAL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
WSNWashington Nationals+107
MIAMiami Marlins-126
Pick Probability58%MIA moneyline
WSNFoster Griffin
MIARobby Snelling
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
MIA moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
LAALos Angeles Angels+138
TORToronto Blue Jays-164
Pick Probability57%TOR moneyline
LAAReid Detmers
TORDylan Cease
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
TOR / lean confidence / Rank 7 / Agrees with model

Model has TOR 57% vs market 60%, reasonable convergence. Cease's 20.25 K/9 over 5.1 IP is extreme small sample—likely regresses but still strong to...

MLBMoneyline
Open
COLColorado Rockies+180
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-220
Pick Probability55%COL moneyline
COLChase Dollander
PHIJesús Luzardo
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.6
AI Analyst
PHI / lean confidence / Rank 9 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Market has PHI at 66%, model has COL at 55%. Dollander has null stats (data_quality=full but no IP/ERA). Luzardo's 9.0 ERA in 6 IP is tiny sample....

MLBMoneyline
Open
DETDetroit Tigers+120
KCRKansas City Royals-145
Pick Probability54%KCR moneyline
DETKeider Montero
KCRKris Bubic
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.1
Model pick
KCR moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYYNew York Yankees-132
MILMilwaukee Brewers+110
Pick Probability53%NYY moneyline
NYYMax Fried
MILJacob Misiorowski
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.4
AI Analyst
MIL / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has NYY 53% but market shows MIL +115 (46% implied), a 7-point gap favoring the home side the model underrates. Fried's 0.00 ERA in 6.1 IP is...

MLBMoneyline
Open
ATLAtlanta Braves+100
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-120
Pick Probability52%ATL moneyline
ATLChris Sale
LADEmmet Sheehan
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
ATL / strong confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

Sheehan's 10.8 ERA over 3.1 IP is catastrophic small sample—likely opener or injury return. Sale's 0.0 ERA in 6.0 IP equally noisy but ATL offense...

MLBMoneyline
Open
TBRTampa Bay Rays+116
BOSBoston Red Sox-139
Pick Probability51%BOS moneyline
TBRJesse Scholtens
BOSConnelly Early
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.2
Model pick
BOS moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates-101
SFGSan Francisco Giants-120
Pick Probability51%SFG moneyline
PITCarmen Mlodzinski
SFGRobbie Ray
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.2
AI Analyst
PIT / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model's 9.13 total vs market 7.5 is a 1.63-run structural miss. SFG starter is TBD fallback, Oracle runs at 0.91 PF, and SFG offense is catastrophi...

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