MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-05-14 / 11 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-05-14
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
COLColorado Rockies+145
PITPittsburgh Pirates-175
Pick Probability64%PIT moneyline
COLChase Dollander
PITMason Montgomery
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context1.4
AI Analyst
PIT / pass confidence / Rank 9

Montgomery: 2 starts, 2.1 IP total, 7.71 ERA — effectively a debut. Dollander: 10 starts but null for all rate stats (data issue). Model leaning PI...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
DETDetroit Tigers+140
NYMNew York Mets-170
Pick Probability60%NYM moneyline
DETKeider Montero
NYMNolan McLean
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
NYM / pass confidence / Rank 8

Montero has null ERA/IP/K9/WHIP despite 10 starts logged—data integrity issue makes away pitcher unreadable. McLean's 5.0 IP across 10 starts (~0.5...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+146
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-176
Pick Probability60%LAD moneyline
SFGLanden Roupp
LADEmmet Sheehan
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context1.1
AI Analyst
LAD / pass confidence / Rank 7

Sheehan has logged only 3.1 IP across 10 'starts' (likely bulk reliever role) with a 10.8 ERA. Roupp has no recorded stats despite 10 starts. No pa...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
WSNWashington Nationals+130
CINCincinnati Reds-157
Pick Probability58%CIN moneyline
WSNFoster Griffin
CINChase Burns
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
CIN moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
SDPSan Diego Padres+128
MILMilwaukee Brewers-152
Pick Probability57%SDP moneyline
SDPGriffin Canning
MILKyle Harrison
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
SDP / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Model favors SDP 57.4% vs market 42.1% (8pp gap triggers disagreement flag). Missing pitcher stats is concerning but SHAP shows away pitcher metric...

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-05-14

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

11 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
COLColorado Rockies+145
PITPittsburgh Pirates-175
Pick Probability64%PIT moneyline
COLChase Dollander
PITMason Montgomery
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context1.4
AI Analyst
PIT / pass confidence / Rank 9

Montgomery: 2 starts, 2.1 IP total, 7.71 ERA — effectively a debut. Dollander: 10 starts but null for all rate stats (data issue). Model leaning PI...

MLBMoneyline
Open
DETDetroit Tigers+140
NYMNew York Mets-170
Pick Probability60%NYM moneyline
DETKeider Montero
NYMNolan McLean
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
NYM / pass confidence / Rank 8

Montero has null ERA/IP/K9/WHIP despite 10 starts logged—data integrity issue makes away pitcher unreadable. McLean's 5.0 IP across 10 starts (~0.5...

MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants+146
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-176
Pick Probability60%LAD moneyline
SFGLanden Roupp
LADEmmet Sheehan
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context1.1
AI Analyst
LAD / pass confidence / Rank 7

Sheehan has logged only 3.1 IP across 10 'starts' (likely bulk reliever role) with a 10.8 ERA. Roupp has no recorded stats despite 10 starts. No pa...

MLBMoneyline
Open
WSNWashington Nationals+130
CINCincinnati Reds-157
Pick Probability58%CIN moneyline
WSNFoster Griffin
CINChase Burns
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.4
Model pick
CIN moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
SDPSan Diego Padres+128
MILMilwaukee Brewers-152
Pick Probability57%SDP moneyline
SDPGriffin Canning
MILKyle Harrison
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context1.0
AI Analyst
SDP / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Model favors SDP 57.4% vs market 42.1% (8pp gap triggers disagreement flag). Missing pitcher stats is concerning but SHAP shows away pitcher metric...

MLBMoneyline
Open
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies-110
BOSBoston Red Sox-108
Pick Probability55%PHI moneyline
PHIJesús Luzardo
BOSRanger Suarez
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
PHI / lean confidence / Rank 2 / Agrees with model

Model predicts 9.13 runs vs market 7.0—a 2.1-run gap flags structural error. PHI's 4.9 RPG faces BOS 3.4 RPG offense; market sees pitcher compariso...

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHCChicago Cubs+135
ATLAtlanta Braves-162
Pick Probability55%CHC moneyline
CHCBen Brown
ATLChris Sale
Market OddsPregame
Market Total7.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
ATL / standard confidence / Rank 1 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has CHC at 55% but market implies ATL 59%; model systematically underweights home field in pitcher parks (PF 0.915). Sale's 0.0 ERA over 6.0...

MLBMoneyline
Open
MIAMiami Marlins+106
MINMinnesota Twins-126
Pick Probability54%MIN moneyline
MIABraxton Garrett
MINZebby Matthews
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.0
AI Analyst
MIN / pass confidence / Rank 6

Away pitcher is TBD with fallback stats (5.4 ERA in 5 IP over 10 GS is clearly team aggregate). Matthews has 10 starts but all stats are null, sugg...

MLBMoneyline
Open
SEASeattle Mariners-126
HOUHouston Astros+107
Pick Probability54%HOU moneyline
SEALuis Castillo
HOUMike Burrows
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.1
AI Analyst
SEA / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model picks HOU at 53.6% vs market 46.5%, but SEA has better record (21-23 vs 17-27) and offense (4.1 RPG, .793 OPS vs 2.8 RPG, .695 OPS). Burrows'...

MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals-105
OAKOakland Athletics-112
Pick Probability53%OAK moneyline
STLMichael McGreevy
OAKJacob Lopez
Market OddsPregame
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.1
Model pick
OAK moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
KCRKansas City Royals-137
CHWChicago White Sox+115
Pick Probability51%CHW moneyline
KCRKris Bubic
CHWAnthony Kay
Market OddsPregame
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
CHW / pass confidence / Rank 5

Bubic missing all season stats (0 IP, null ERA/WHIP/K9) makes this unpickable for moneyline. Model has CHW 50.6%, market implies KCR 55.6%—a coin f...

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