MLB moneyline board.

Model's TEX lean is an offense-defense mismatch: Texas is 66-68 with 3.8 RPG and .698 OPS against a Milwaukee club at 83-51, 6.6 RPG, .972 OPS. Henderson (2.60 ERA, 10...

Model (57.7%) and market (59%) agree on NYY, and the pitching comparison is clear: Schlittler at 2.16 ERA, 0.96 WHIP, 10.99 K/9 versus Sandoval's 4.54 ERA and 1.76 WHI...

Market implies 62.1% on Toronto vs the model's 57.0%; with Cease at a 2.37 ERA, 13.03 K/9 and 1.06 WHIP over 144.1 IP against an unnamed Seattle starter, the market si...

Model lands on COL at 50.6% against a market implying 67.2% home, a large gap I would not chase: ATL is 79-55 versus 52-82 and Holmes (3.64 ERA, 1.32 WHIP) outclasses...

Model's 53.5% on SDP fights both the market (implied 55% home) and the record gap (TBR 79-54 vs SDP 72-62), with TBR's .802 OPS well ahead of San Diego's .547. McClana...

Model has SFG at 53.8% vs market's 44.7% implied, a 9-point gap in favor of the team with the worse record (55-79 vs 71-64) and lower OPS (.388 vs .564). Drake's 5.40...

Model at 57% vs market's 48.4% on STL is a large gap. STL's offense is clearly better (.812 OPS, 4.7 RPG vs .710, 3.2), but the market is pricing the starter mismatch:...

Model's 54.4% on LAA is over 10 points above the market's 44.2%, and it is backing the worse team (52-82, 4.1 RPG) against a 74-60 club scoring 5.7. Detmers (3.62 ERA,...

Model has NYM at 62.7% against a market implying 46.2% — a 16-point gap on the team with the worse record (60-74 vs 67-67) and worse scoring rate (3.3 vs 3.9 RPG). Hun...