MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-30 / 19 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
TEX at TBR Jul 30, 10:10 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCole Winn TEX starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.0 Actual 0 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 80% under
O 2.5 58% under
O 3.5 36% under
O 4.5 19% under
O 5.5 9% under
O 6.5 4% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.
Shane McClanahan TBR starter / home
Projected K 4.8 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -160 betmgm / U +127 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% under
O 4.5 52% under
O 5.5 35% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
KCR at MIN Jul 30, 11:40 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNoah Cameron KCR starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 betmgm / U +105 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 66% over
O 4.5 48% over
O 5.5 32% over
O 6.5 19% over
O 7.5 10% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Bailey Ober MIN starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -160 fanatics / U +128 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 59% under
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
NYY at CHW Jul 30, 12:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRyan Weathers NYY starter / away
Projected K 5.4 Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +126 fanduel / U -140 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 30%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 89% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 61% under
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Sean Burke CHW starter / home
Projected K 7.1 Actual 10 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +102 fanduel / U -123 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 7.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 97% over
O 3.5 91% over
O 4.5 82% over
O 5.5 69% over
O 6.5 55% over
O 7.5 41% over
O 8.5 29% over
O 9.5 19% over
O 10.5 12% under
O 11.5 7% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
CHC at STL Jul 30, 12:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJavier Assad CHC starter / away
Projected K 2.8 Actual 6 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -115 bovada / U -101 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 2.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 76% over
O 2.5 53% over
O 3.5 31% over
O 4.5 16% over
O 5.5 7% over
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Andre Pallante STL starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +138 fanduel / U -164 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 63% under
O 4.5 44% under
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
MIA at NYM Jul 30, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastEury Pérez MIA starter / away
Projected K 5.6 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -143 betrivers / U +130 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 48% over
O 6.5 33% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Nolan McLean NYM starter / home
Projected K 6.1 Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -104 fanduel / U -103 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 6.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% over
O 4.5 72% over
O 5.5 56% over
O 6.5 41% under
O 7.5 28% under
O 8.5 17% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
PIT at CIN Jul 30, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastYohan Ramírez PIT starter / away Thin data
Projected K 3.7 Actual 4 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 70% over
O 3.5 49% over
O 4.5 31% under
O 5.5 17% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Rhett Lowder CIN starter / home
Projected K 4.6 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -122 betrivers / U +110 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 32% under
O 6.5 19% under
O 7.5 11% under
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
WSN at ATL Jul 30, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJake Irvin WSN starter / away
Projected K 4.2 Actual 1 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -108 betonlineag / U -106 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% under
O 2.5 77% under
O 3.5 59% under
O 4.5 40% under
O 5.5 24% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Grant Holmes ATL starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +125 betonlineag / U -138 fanduel 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 46%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% over
O 4.5 46% under
O 5.5 29% under
O 6.5 17% under
O 7.5 9% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
SFG at SDP Jul 30, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJP Sears SDP starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -106 fanduel / U -109 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% under
O 3.5 53% under
O 4.5 34% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
BOS at OAK Jul 30, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSonny Gray BOS starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -142 fanduel / U +123 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 36% under
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Mason Barnett OAK starter / home
Projected K 3.5 Actual 6 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% over
O 2.5 68% over
O 3.5 47% over
O 4.5 28% over
O 5.5 15% over
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
SEA at LAD Jul 30, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBryan Woo SEA starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +120 betmgm / U -148 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 36% over
O 6.5 23% over
O 7.5 13% over
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
Roki Sasaki LAD starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -120 fanatics / U +110 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 51% over
O 6.5 36% over
O 7.5 24% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.