MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-31 / 30 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betonlineag betrivers fanatics
NYY at CHC Jul 31, 12:20 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastWill Warren NYY starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -110 fanatics / U -108 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 55% over
O 4.5 36% over
O 5.5 21% over
O 6.5 11% over
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Shota Imanaga CHC starter / home
Projected K 5.8 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -132 fanduel / U +118 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 92% over
O 3.5 82% over
O 4.5 67% over
O 5.5 51% over
O 6.5 36% under
O 7.5 23% under
O 8.5 14% under
O 9.5 8% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
PIT at CIN Jul 31, 4:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastPaul Skenes PIT starter / away
Projected K 7.0 Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -145 fanatics / U +130 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 7.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 91% over
O 4.5 81% over
O 5.5 69% over
O 6.5 54% over
O 7.5 40% under
O 8.5 28% under
O 9.5 18% under
O 10.5 11% under
O 11.5 6% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Hunter Greene CIN starter / home
Projected K 6.9 Actual 4 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +122 fanduel / U -140 betmgm 7 books at this line
Model over 7.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 96% over
O 3.5 90% over
O 4.5 80% under
O 5.5 67% under
O 6.5 53% under
O 7.5 39% under
O 8.5 27% under
O 9.5 17% under
O 10.5 10% under
O 11.5 6% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
PHI at BAL Jul 31, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAndrew Painter PHI starter / away
Projected K 3.4 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -142 draftkings / U +115 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85% over
O 2.5 66% over
O 3.5 45% over
O 4.5 27% over
O 5.5 14% over
O 6.5 7% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Brandon Young BAL starter / home
Projected K 5.5 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -135 bovada / U +119 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 63%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 79% over
O 4.5 63% over
O 5.5 47% under
O 6.5 32% under
O 7.5 20% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
STL at TOR Jul 31, 5:07 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastKyle Leahy STL starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -163 draftkings / U +130 bovada 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 55% under
O 4.5 36% under
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Dylan Cease TOR starter / home
Projected K 8.4 Actual 7 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O -125 fanatics / U +112 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 7.5 59%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 100% over
O 2.5 99% over
O 3.5 96% over
O 4.5 91% over
O 5.5 82% over
O 6.5 72% over
O 7.5 59% under
O 8.5 46% under
O 9.5 34% under
O 10.5 24% under
O 11.5 16% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
CHW at TBR Jul 31, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastErick Fedde CHW starter / away
Projected K 3.3 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +122 fanduel / U -144 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 83% over
O 2.5 63% over
O 3.5 41% over
O 4.5 23% over
O 5.5 12% over
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Nick Martinez TBR starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +115 betonlineag / U -130 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 78% under
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
MIA at NYM Jul 31, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastJanson Junk MIA starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -162 betrivers / U +133 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89% over
O 2.5 73% over
O 3.5 53% over
O 4.5 34% under
O 5.5 20% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Kodai Senga NYM starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -121 draftkings / U +112 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% over
O 4.5 37% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
ARI at CLE Jul 31, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMitch Bratt ARI starter / away
Projected K 3.4 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +115 betonlineag / U +108 betrivers 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% over
O 2.5 65% under
O 3.5 44% under
O 4.5 26% under
O 5.5 13% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Tanner Bibee CLE starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +101 draftkings / U -122 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% under
O 4.5 42% under
O 5.5 26% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
WSN at ATL Jul 31, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastFoster Griffin WSN starter / away
Projected K 5.4 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -151 draftkings / U +135 betonlineag 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 62%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 77% under
O 4.5 62% under
O 5.5 45% under
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Bryce Elder ATL starter / home
Projected K 4.3 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -105 betmgm / U -102 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 61% under
O 4.5 43% under
O 5.5 27% under
O 6.5 15% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
TEX at HOU Jul 31, 6:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNathan Eovaldi TEX starter / away
Projected K 6.4 Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +125 betonlineag / U -145 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 6.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 87% over
O 4.5 75% over
O 5.5 60% under
O 6.5 45% under
O 7.5 31% under
O 8.5 20% under
O 9.5 12% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Hunter Brown HOU starter / home
Projected K 6.1 Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O +116 fanduel / U -143 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 93% over
O 3.5 84% over
O 4.5 71% over
O 5.5 56% under
O 6.5 41% under
O 7.5 27% under
O 8.5 17% under
O 9.5 10% under
O 10.5 6% under
O 11.5 3% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
KCR at COL Jul 31, 6:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael Wacha KCR starter / away
Projected K 4.3 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +105 betmgm / U -120 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 4.5 43%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92% over
O 2.5 79% over
O 3.5 62% over
O 4.5 43% over
O 5.5 27% over
O 6.5 15% over
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Tomoyuki Sugano COL starter / home
Projected K 3.6 Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -104 draftkings / U -115 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87% over
O 2.5 69% under
O 3.5 48% under
O 4.5 30% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
MIL at LAA Jul 31, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastShane Drohan MIL starter / away
Projected K 5.2 Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -132 draftkings / U +116 betonlineag 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 42%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% over
O 3.5 75% over
O 4.5 59% over
O 5.5 42% over
O 6.5 28% over
O 7.5 17% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 5% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Ryan Johnson LAA starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +130 betmgm / U -160 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 44%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 80% over
O 3.5 63% under
O 4.5 44% under
O 5.5 28% under
O 6.5 16% under
O 7.5 8% under
O 8.5 4% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
DET at OAK Jul 31, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTyler Holton DET starter / away
Projected K 2.2 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 64% under
O 2.5 37% under
O 3.5 18% under
O 4.5 7% under
O 5.5 3% under
O 6.5 1% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Jeffrey Springs OAK starter / home
Projected K 4.1 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +126 fanduel / U -142 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 76% under
O 3.5 57% under
O 4.5 38% under
O 5.5 23% under
O 6.5 13% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
SFG at SDP Jul 31, 7:45 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCarson Whisenhunt SFG starter / away
Projected K 4.0 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -135 betmgm / U +120 bovada 7 books at this line
Model over 3.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 56% under
O 4.5 37% under
O 5.5 22% under
O 6.5 12% under
O 7.5 6% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Bradgley Rodriguez SDP starter / home
Projected K 1.8 Actual 2 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 53% over
O 2.5 27% under
O 3.5 11% under
O 4.5 4% under
O 5.5 1% under
O 6.5 0% under
O 7.5 0% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
MIN at SEA Jul 31, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastZebby Matthews MIN starter / away
Projected K 4.6 Actual 10 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -128 fanduel / U +108 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 83% over
O 3.5 67% over
O 4.5 49% over
O 5.5 32% over
O 6.5 19% over
O 7.5 11% over
O 8.5 5% over
O 9.5 3% over
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
Bryce Miller SEA starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 3 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -105 betmgm / U -112 draftkings 7 books at this line
Model over 5.5 48%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 79% under
O 4.5 64% under
O 5.5 48% under
O 6.5 33% under
O 7.5 21% under
O 8.5 12% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
BOS at LAD Jul 31, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRanger Suarez BOS starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -108 fanduel / U -105 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 88% under
O 3.5 74% under
O 4.5 57% under
O 5.5 41% under
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Edgardo Henriquez LAD starter / home Thin data
Projected K 3.6 Actual 1 K
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86% under
O 2.5 68% under
O 3.5 48% under
O 4.5 29% under
O 5.5 16% under
O 6.5 8% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.