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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-08-01 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
STL at TOR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Quinn MathewsSTL starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.0Actual 3 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.579%over
O 2.557%over
O 3.535%under
O 4.519%under
O 5.59%under
O 6.54%under
O 7.51%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Kevin GausmanTOR starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 fanatics / U -137 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.563%under
O 5.547%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

CHW at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jordan HicksCHW starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%under
O 2.567%under
O 3.546%under
O 4.528%under
O 5.515%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

Drew RasmussenTBR starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -132 fanduel / U +123 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.539%over
O 7.526%over
O 8.516%over
O 9.59%over
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

MIN at SEA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Connor PrielippMIN starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -129 betrivers / U +115 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%over
O 5.539%under
O 6.525%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Logan GilbertSEA starter / home
Projected K7.0Actual 6 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +107 betonlineag / U -125 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 6.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.581%over
O 5.568%over
O 6.554%under
O 7.540%under
O 8.528%under
O 9.518%under
O 10.511%under
O 11.56%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

MIA at NYM / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +105 betmgm / U -121 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%over
O 2.568%over
O 3.547%under
O 4.529%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Zac ThorntonNYM starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +130 fanatics / U -160 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 4.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%over
O 2.581%under
O 3.564%under
O 4.546%under
O 5.530%under
O 6.517%under
O 7.59%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

PIT at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / away
Projected K6.1Actual 5 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -108 betrivers / U -110 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 6.540%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%over
O 5.556%under
O 6.540%under
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

Andrew AbbottCIN starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +129 draftkings / U -136 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 5.551%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%under
O 2.592%under
O 3.581%under
O 4.567%under
O 5.551%under
O 6.536%under
O 7.523%under
O 8.514%under
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

PHI at BAL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / away
Projected K6.6Actual 11 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O +124 fanduel / U -156 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 7.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.588%over
O 4.577%over
O 5.563%over
O 6.548%over
O 7.534%over
O 8.523%over
O 9.514%over
O 10.58%over
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 11 strikeouts.

Shane BazBAL starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 fanatics / U -131 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.562%under
O 5.545%under
O 6.530%under
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

TEX at HOU / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jacob deGromTEX starter / away
Projected K6.4Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -103 betonlineag / U -112 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.595%over
O 3.587%under
O 4.575%under
O 5.561%under
O 6.546%under
O 7.532%under
O 8.521%under
O 9.513%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Ronel BlancoHOU starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +123 betrivers / U -143 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 5.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.584%over
O 4.571%under
O 5.555%under
O 6.540%under
O 7.527%under
O 8.517%under
O 9.510%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

ARI at CLE / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Kohl DrakeARI starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +102 fanduel / U -122 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 3.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%over
O 2.573%over
O 3.554%over
O 4.535%over
O 5.520%over
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Parker MessickCLE starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -145 fanatics / U +125 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

NYY at CHC / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Max FriedNYY starter / away
Projected K4.7Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -146 draftkings / U +128 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 4.550%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.568%over
O 4.550%over
O 5.533%over
O 6.520%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

David PetersonCHC starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 8 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -138 draftkings / U +117 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.511%over
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.

WSN at ATL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Miles MikolasWSN starter / away
Projected K3.5Actual 3 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O +106 betonlineag / U -120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 2.566%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%over
O 2.566%over
O 3.545%under
O 4.527%under
O 5.514%under
O 6.57%under
O 7.53%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

Martín PérezATL starter / home
Projected K4.2Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +114 fanduel / U -140 fanduel2 books at this line
Model over 4.541%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.578%over
O 3.560%over
O 4.541%over
O 5.525%over
O 6.514%under
O 7.57%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

KCR at COL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Luinder AvilaKCR starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -140 fanduel / U +120 betmgm7 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%under
O 3.555%under
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Ryan FeltnerCOL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -142 fanduel / U +112 fanduel4 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.555%under
O 4.537%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

SFG at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Tyler MahleSFG starter / away
Projected K4.3Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 betrivers / U -159 betonlineag4 books at this line
Model over 4.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.579%over
O 3.562%over
O 4.543%over
O 5.527%over
O 6.515%over
O 7.58%over
O 8.54%over
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K4.5Actual 1 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +128 fanduel / U -152 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%under
O 2.582%under
O 3.565%under
O 4.547%under
O 5.531%under
O 6.518%under
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

BOS at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Payton TolleBOS starter / away
Projected K4.6Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 betmgm / U -120 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.532%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.548%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.510%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Yoshinobu YamamotoLAD starter / home
Projected K5.9Actual 3 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O -105 betonlineag / U -105 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 6.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.583%under
O 4.569%under
O 5.553%under
O 6.538%under
O 7.525%under
O 8.515%under
O 9.59%under
O 10.55%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

MIL at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Robert GasserMIL starter / away
Projected K4.9Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -143 betrivers / U +120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.553%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.585%over
O 3.570%over
O 4.553%over
O 5.536%over
O 6.522%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Brent SuterLAA starter / home
Projected K2.2Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.565%under
O 2.539%under
O 3.519%under
O 4.58%under
O 5.53%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

DET at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Framber ValdezDET starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 betmgm / U +112 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 4.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.575%over
O 3.556%over
O 4.537%over
O 5.522%over
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Jack PerkinsOAK starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 betmgm / U -104 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.588%over
O 3.574%over
O 4.558%over
O 5.541%over
O 6.526%over
O 7.516%over
O 8.59%over
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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