Ranked picks with source labels.

Model at 57.6% vs market 58.2% on ATL—tight convergence. Pérez (3.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) vs Liberatore (5.56 ERA, 1.58 WHIP) is a clear mismatch favori...

Model predicts 9.28 runs vs market 7.5—a 1.78 gap triggering total_far_from_market. deGrom (3.55 ERA, 10.76 K/9) vs Bibee (3.78 ERA) in pitcher-fri...

Model has SDP at 56% but market strongly favors CHC at 58%. The 3.5-run gap between model's 7.52 total and market's 11.0 is massive—model sees pitc...

Model and market converge on MIA (model 56%, market 58%). Coors inflates the model's 9.64 total vs market 11.5; park_factor dominates SHAP at +3.4....

Model has CHW 55.8%, market implies BAL 55.6% — near-consensus on a coin flip. The 3.15-run gap between model total (7.35) and market (10.5) is mas...

Model has TBR 55.8%, market implies 54.8% — minimal comparison. Model total 8.29 vs market 10.0 is a 1.7-run gap; likely the model underweights KCR...

Model gives MIN 55.8%, market implies 51.2% — modest comparison. Joe Ryan (3.18 ERA, 10.41 K/9, 1.03 WHIP) vs Burrows (5.48 ERA, 7.28 K/9, 1.5 WHIP...

Model predicts 7.61 runs, market sets 11.0 — a massive 3.4-run gap. Market likely accounting for OAK bullpen collapse or Springs' 5.52 ERA blowup r...

Model picks WSN at 55.7%, market has them at ~45.5%—large disagreement flags structural risk. Model's 7.04 total vs market 9.0 is a 2-run miss; mod...

Home pitcher is TBD with fallback stats (5.84 ERA, 1.53 WHIP over 81.7 IP). Model picks SFG at 56% but market is dead even at -105/-105. Structural...

Market has MIL at 61.6% vs model's 53.2% — an 8.4 point gap flags structural disagreement. Model predicts 7.34 runs vs market 9.0, a 1.66-run miss....