Ranked picks with source labels.

Model (61.1%) and market (60.8%) converge on Tampa Bay, and the underlying profile supports it: Rasmussen's 2.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP against a Housto...

Model's 56.2% on MIN sits ~9 points above the market's 47.4% implied, and the pitching matchup argues the other way: Messick's 2.53 ERA and 1.04 WH...

Fading the model here: it picks OAK despite a worse record (59-88 vs 69-78), far worse OPS (.512 vs .793) and the weaker starter (Springs 6.02 ERA,...

Model and market agree on LAD but the gap is wide (55.5% vs 66% implied), and the LAD starter is TBD with fallback stats (2.62 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) that...

Both starters are TBD with fallback stats, so the projected 6.22 vs 3.80 ERA split carries little weight. Model sides with TEX at 54.1% while the m...

Model's 53.6% on MIL is well under the market's 62% despite Milwaukee sitting 91-56 with a .972 OPS against a Cincinnati offense at .629. The marke...

Model is near coin-flip on SDP (51.1%) while market implies ~57%; SDP's 78-68 record and Ray's 151.1 IP body of work at 3.39 ERA support the market...