Ranked picks with source labels.

Model (61.1%) and market (61.3%) agree on Detroit, so there is no comparison to fade. DET's 5.0 RPG at home against Gordon's 5.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP...

STL's 6.5 RPG and .812 OPS dwarf Chicago's 3.3 RPG/.729 OPS, and they're home, yet the market prices this near pick'em (-107) while the model sits...

MIL at 92-56 with 7.6 RPG and .972 OPS is far ahead of CIN (69-78, 4.1 RPG, .629 OPS), and Singer's 5.03 ERA/1.47 WHIP does little to close that ga...

Market is essentially pick'em (-107/-103) and the model's CLE lean at 54% is thin. Minnesota has the clear offensive comparison (5.1 RPG, .673 OPS...

Market implies 56.3% for Arizona while the model has Texas at 54.1% — a ~10-point gap I'd resolve toward the market. Pfaadt (3.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP) i...

Model has OAK at 52.5% against a market implying 39.1% — a 13-point gap I can't justify. Woo (4.03 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 156.1 IP) is clearly ahead of Ju...

Model takes PIT despite the worse record (74-74 vs 82-66) and lower scoring (4.2 vs 5.0 RPG), which is the classic mismatch red flag. Holmes' 2.83...