Ranked picks with source labels.

Misiorowski's 1.86 ERA, 0.80 WHIP and 13.13 K/9 is a clear comparison over Pallante (3.61 ERA, 6.08 K/9), and STL's 3.1 runs per game is the weaker...

Model's 59.2% on NYY is only modestly above the market's 55.6%, and the starter comparison belongs to Baz (4.11 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 179.2 IP) over Rodr...

LAD (99-62, 4.7 RPG, .743 OPS) is clearly the better club against a Giants offense at 3.5 RPG, and Seymour's 4.70 ERA with a 1.53 WHIP over just 3...

Boston's starter is TBD and the model substituted a 4.33 ERA / 1.37 WHIP fallback profile, so the pitching side is unresolved. Imanaga's 3.74 ERA a...

Market (-140) and model (54.8%) agree on Arizona despite SDP's better record. Soroka's 3.31 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 8.89 K/9 clearly outclass Vasquez's...

Model gives ATL 54.8% while the market prices MIA at -118 (53.1% home), a ~8-point gap the model justifies mostly on season win pct — a weak input...