CIN at ATL

Model (64.2%) and market (63.5%) agree on ATL, and the underlying gap supports it: 92-64 with 5.4 RPG and .789 OPS against a 72-84 Cincinnati club...

Model (64.2%) and market (65.8%) agree on Chicago, so the side is uncontroversial, but the home starter is TBD/fallback, which caps conviction. The...

Gilbert (3.69 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 9.81 K/9) is a clear comparison over Javier (5.31 ERA, 1.46 WHIP), and HOU's 2.8 RPG / .695 OPS offense is the weaker...

Market implies 56.3% home while the model has NYM at 56.9% — a ~13-point gap with no clear justification. NYM has the worse record (71-85 vs 78-78)...

Model has CLE at 54.8% while the market implies 54.1% for Boston, a ~9-point gap with no clear justification. The team lines are internally inconsi...

Model (54.5%) and market (55.6%) essentially agree on PHI, so the offense_defense_mismatch flag is mostly explained by the pitching comparison: Whe...

Model takes KCR despite a 67-89 record, 3.2 RPG and .518 OPS against a CHW side at 4.8 RPG and .729 OPS — classic offense/defense mismatch. Market...

Market prices MIN at -129 (~56%) while the model has SFG at 52.6%; I side with the market. Bradley has 172 IP with a 10.39 K/9 versus Molina's 28 I...

Model has STL at 50.4% while the market implies 58% for PIT, an 8+ point gap I'd side with the market on. Jones' 10.82 K/9 and 1.19 WHIP at home is...