MLB real data

MLB moneyline board.

Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.

MLB real / 2026-07-22 / 17 picks

Top Picks Today

Strongest current spots

2026-07-22
#1MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates+155
NYYNew York Yankees-186
Pick Probability61%NYY moneyline
PITMitch KellerConfirmed
NYYGerrit ColeConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
NYY / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Model (60.5%) and market (61.6%) agree on NYY slight favorite. Cole's 3.93 ERA in 55 IP is solid; Keller's 5.14 ERA in 103 IP is exploitable. Yanke...

#2MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-125
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+106
Pick Probability59%PHI moneyline
LADEric LauerConfirmed
PHIAaron NolaConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
LAD / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has PHI at 59% but market implies LAD 52.5%. LAD has superior offense (.743 OPS vs .576) and better record (64-38 vs 56-46). Nola's 5.68 ERA...

#3MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles+138
BOSBoston Red Sox-164
Pick Probability59%BOS moneyline
BALDean KremerConfirmed
BOSJake BennettConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
BOS / lean confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

Market data missing so no reference point for value. Model has BOS at 60.8% with Suarez (3.15 ERA, 9.56 K/9 in 91.3 IP) vs Bradish (3.61 ERA in 107...

#4MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets+134
MILMilwaukee Brewers-158
Pick Probability59%MIL moneyline
NYMChristian ScottConfirmed
MILLogan HendersonConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
MIL / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Agrees with model

Model at 58.5% vs market 56.6% on MIL—minimal comparison. Both pitchers sub-3.00 ERA (Henderson 2.97, Scott 2.87) with strong K rates (10.26, 10.86...

#5MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles+110
BOSBoston Red Sox-128
Pick Probability59%BOS moneyline
BALKyle BradishConfirmed
BOSEduardo RiveraConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
BOS / pass confidence / Rank 8

BOS starter is TBD with fallback stats (3.31 ERA, 9.64 K/9 over 89.7 IP), making both moneyline and total unreliable. No market data to triangulate...

AI Analyst Today

Ranked MLB analyst slate

2026-07-22
Rank#1
BAL at BOSBaltimore Orioles at Boston Red Sox
AI Analyst PickBOSlean confidence
Agrees with modelBOS / 59%Model pick probability

Market data missing so no reference point for value. Model has BOS at 60.8% with Suarez (3.15 ERA, 9.56 K/9 in 91.3 IP) vs Bradish (3.61 ERA in 107.3 IP). Both pitcher...

Rank#1
WSN at COLWashington Nationals at Colorado Rockies
AI Analyst PickWSNstrong confidence
Agrees with modelWSN / 54%Model pick probability

Model predicts 8.75 runs at Coors Field (PF 1.47) while market sets 11.5. This is a 2.75-run structural miss. The model systematically underweights park effects in ext...

Rank#2
CIN at SEACincinnati Reds at Seattle Mariners
AI Analyst PickSEAstandard confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelCIN / 54%Model pick probability

Model has CIN at 54.5% but market heavily favors SEA at 58.6% implied. Extreme pitcher's park (PF 0.855) plus Hancock's 3.17 ERA in 99+ IP argues for home side and und...

Rank#3
PIT at NYYPittsburgh Pirates at New York Yankees
AI Analyst PickNYYlean confidence
Agrees with modelNYY / 61%Model pick probability

Model (60.5%) and market (61.6%) agree on NYY slight favorite. Cole's 3.93 ERA in 55 IP is solid; Keller's 5.14 ERA in 103 IP is exploitable. Yankee Stadium's 0.93 par...

Rank#4
NYM at MILNew York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers
AI Analyst PickMILlean confidence
Agrees with modelMIL / 59%Model pick probability

Model at 58.5% vs market 56.6% on MIL—minimal comparison. Both pitchers sub-3.00 ERA (Henderson 2.97, Scott 2.87) with strong K rates (10.26, 10.86). Model total 8.84...

Rank#5
MIN at CLEMinnesota Twins at Cleveland Guardians
AI Analyst PickMINlean confidence
Agrees with modelMIN / 52%Model pick probability

Model has MIN at 51.6%, market implies CLE 53.5%. Coin flip territory. Model total 9.09 vs market 8.0 is a 1.09 gap—not structural enough to fade. offense_defense_mism...

Rank#6
LAD at PHILos Angeles Dodgers at Philadelphia Phillies
AI Analyst PickLADlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelPHI / 59%Model pick probability

Model has PHI at 59% but market implies LAD 52.5%. LAD has superior offense (.743 OPS vs .576) and better record (64-38 vs 56-46). Nola's 5.68 ERA in 103 IP is not a s...

Rank#7
SFG at KCRSan Francisco Giants at Kansas City Royals
AI Analyst PickSFGlean confidence
Analyst disagrees with base modelKCR / 54%Model pick probability

Model likes KCR 54% but market favors SFG at 52%. Both offenses are weak (.518/.388 OPS) but Kauffman PF 1.094 tilts total over 8.5. Roupp's 3.98 ERA and 9.17 K/9 in 1...

MLB Board

Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context

17 shown
MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates+155
NYYNew York Yankees-186
Pick Probability61%NYY moneyline
PITMitch KellerConfirmed
NYYGerrit ColeConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.2
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
NYY / lean confidence / Rank 3 / Agrees with model

Model (60.5%) and market (61.6%) agree on NYY slight favorite. Cole's 3.93 ERA in 55 IP is solid; Keller's 5.14 ERA in 103 IP is exploitable. Yanke...

MLBMoneyline
Open
LADLos Angeles Dodgers-125
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies+106
Pick Probability59%PHI moneyline
LADEric LauerConfirmed
PHIAaron NolaConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.8
AI Analyst
LAD / lean confidence / Rank 6 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has PHI at 59% but market implies LAD 52.5%. LAD has superior offense (.743 OPS vs .576) and better record (64-38 vs 56-46). Nola's 5.68 ERA...

MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles+138
BOSBoston Red Sox-164
Pick Probability59%BOS moneyline
BALDean KremerConfirmed
BOSJake BennettConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
BOS / lean confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

Market data missing so no reference point for value. Model has BOS at 60.8% with Suarez (3.15 ERA, 9.56 K/9 in 91.3 IP) vs Bradish (3.61 ERA in 107...

MLBMoneyline
Open
NYMNew York Mets+134
MILMilwaukee Brewers-158
Pick Probability59%MIL moneyline
NYMChristian ScottConfirmed
MILLogan HendersonConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
MIL / lean confidence / Rank 4 / Agrees with model

Model at 58.5% vs market 56.6% on MIL—minimal comparison. Both pitchers sub-3.00 ERA (Henderson 2.97, Scott 2.87) with strong K rates (10.26, 10.86...

MLBMoneyline
Open
BALBaltimore Orioles+110
BOSBoston Red Sox-128
Pick Probability59%BOS moneyline
BALKyle BradishConfirmed
BOSEduardo RiveraConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.0
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
BOS / pass confidence / Rank 8

BOS starter is TBD with fallback stats (3.31 ERA, 9.64 K/9 over 89.7 IP), making both moneyline and total unreliable. No market data to triangulate...

MLBMoneyline
Open
OAKOakland Athletics+118
ARIArizona Diamondbacks-140
Pick Probability58%ARI moneyline
OAKGage JumpConfirmed
ARIMerrill KellyConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.6
Model pick
ARI moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
TBRTampa Bay Rays-110
TORToronto Blue Jays-108
Pick Probability58%TOR moneyline
TBRGriffin JaxConfirmed
TORBraydon FisherConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total7.5
Projected Total8.8
Margin Context0.5
Model pick
TOR moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
PITPittsburgh Pirates+155
NYYNew York Yankees-186
Pick Probability55%NYY moneyline
PITBubba ChandlerConfirmed
NYYMax FriedConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total9.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
NYY moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
STLSt. Louis Cardinals+121
LAALos Angeles Angels-143
Pick Probability55%LAA moneyline
STLHunter DobbinsConfirmed
LAAReid DetmersConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total8.9
Margin Context0.3
Model pick
LAA moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CHWChicago White Sox-122
TEXTexas Rangers+103
Pick Probability55%TEX moneyline
CHWAnthony KayConfirmed
TEXTyler AlexanderConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.1
Model pick
TEX moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
CINCincinnati Reds+140
SEASeattle Mariners-168
Pick Probability54%CIN moneyline
CINBrady SingerConfirmed
SEAEmerson HancockConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context0.7
AI Analyst
SEA / standard confidence / Rank 2 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model has CIN at 54.5% but market heavily favors SEA at 58.6% implied. Extreme pitcher's park (PF 0.855) plus Hancock's 3.17 ERA in 99+ IP argues f...

MLBMoneyline
Open
WSNWashington Nationals-148
COLColorado Rockies+124
Pick Probability54%WSN moneyline
WSNCade CavalliConfirmed
COLGabriel HughesConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total11.5
Projected Total8.7
Margin Context0.5
AI Analyst
WSN / strong confidence / Rank 1 / Agrees with model

Model predicts 8.75 runs at Coors Field (PF 1.47) while market sets 11.5. This is a 2.75-run structural miss. The model systematically underweights...

MLBMoneyline
Open
SFGSan Francisco Giants-132
KCRKansas City Royals+110
Pick Probability54%KCR moneyline
SFGLanden RouppConfirmed
KCRSeth LugoConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.0
AI Analyst
SFG / lean confidence / Rank 7 / Analyst disagrees with base model

Model likes KCR 54% but market favors SFG at 52%. Both offenses are weak (.518/.388 OPS) but Kauffman PF 1.094 tilts total over 8.5. Roupp's 3.98 E...

MLBMoneyline
Open
DETDetroit Tigers+105
CHCChicago Cubs-125
Pick Probability54%CHC moneyline
DETKeider MonteroConfirmed
CHCColin ReaConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.3
Margin Context0.0
Model pick
CHC moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
MINMinnesota Twins+120
CLECleveland Guardians-143
Pick Probability52%MIN moneyline
MINBailey OberConfirmed
CLESlade CecconiConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.1
Margin Context0.3
AI Analyst
MIN / lean confidence / Rank 5 / Agrees with model

Model has MIN at 51.6%, market implies CLE 53.5%. Coin flip territory. Model total 9.09 vs market 8.0 is a 1.09 gap—not structural enough to fade....

MLBMoneyline
Open
MIAMiami Marlins-105
HOUHouston Astros-112
Pick Probability52%HOU moneyline
MIASandy AlcantaraConfirmed
HOUPeter LambertConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.0
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.1
Model pick
HOU moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

MLBMoneyline
Open
SDPSan Diego Padres-104
ATLAtlanta Braves-115
Pick Probability51%ATL moneyline
SDPMichael KingConfirmed
ATLMartín PérezConfirmed
Market OddsClosing odds
Market Total8.5
Projected Total9.0
Margin Context0.2
Model pick
ATL moneyline

Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.

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