MLB moneyline board.

Model (61.1%) and market (60.8%) converge on Tampa Bay, and the underlying profile supports it: Rasmussen's 2.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP against a Houston offense at 3.8 RPG...

Fading the model here: it picks OAK despite a worse record (59-88 vs 69-78), far worse OPS (.512 vs .793) and the weaker starter (Springs 6.02 ERA, 1.45 WHIP vs Kirby...

Model's 53.6% on MIL is well under the market's 62% despite Milwaukee sitting 91-56 with a .972 OPS against a Cincinnati offense at .629. The market read looks better...

Model's 56.2% on MIN sits ~9 points above the market's 47.4% implied, and the pitching matchup argues the other way: Messick's 2.53 ERA and 1.04 WHIP over 167 IP clear...

Model is near coin-flip on SDP (51.1%) while market implies ~57%; SDP's 78-68 record and Ray's 151.1 IP body of work at 3.39 ERA support the market side, but no compar...

Model and market agree on LAD but the gap is wide (55.5% vs 66% implied), and the LAD starter is TBD with fallback stats (2.62 ERA, 0.88 WHIP) that may not reflect who...

Both starters are TBD with fallback stats, so the projected 6.22 vs 3.80 ERA split carries little weight. Model sides with TEX at 54.1% while the market prices ARI at...