MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-08-01 / 25 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Matthew Liberatore STL starter / away
Projected K 4.1
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91%
O 2.5 77%
O 3.5 58%
O 4.5 39%
O 5.5 24%
O 6.5 13%
O 7.5 7%
O 8.5 3%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Kevin Gausman TOR starter / home
Projected K 5.5
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97%
O 2.5 90%
O 3.5 78%
O 4.5 63%
O 5.5 47%
O 6.5 32%
O 7.5 20%
O 8.5 11%
O 9.5 6%
O 10.5 3%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Noah Schultz CHW starter / away
Projected K 3.6
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 87%
O 2.5 69%
O 3.5 48%
O 4.5 29%
O 5.5 16%
O 6.5 8%
O 7.5 3%
O 8.5 1%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Drew Rasmussen TBR starter / home
Projected K 6.0
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98%
O 2.5 93%
O 3.5 83%
O 4.5 70%
O 5.5 55%
O 6.5 39%
O 7.5 26%
O 8.5 16%
O 9.5 9%
O 10.5 5%
O 11.5 3%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Connor Prielipp MIN starter / away
Projected K 5.0
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95%
O 2.5 86%
O 3.5 72%
O 4.5 55%
O 5.5 38%
O 6.5 24%
O 7.5 14%
O 8.5 8%
O 9.5 4%
O 10.5 2%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Tyler Phillips MIA starter / away
Projected K 3.6
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86%
O 2.5 68%
O 3.5 47%
O 4.5 29%
O 5.5 16%
O 6.5 8%
O 7.5 3%
O 8.5 1%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Zac Thornton NYM starter / home
Projected K 4.5
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93%
O 2.5 81%
O 3.5 64%
O 4.5 46%
O 5.5 30%
O 6.5 17%
O 7.5 9%
O 8.5 5%
O 9.5 2%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Braxton Ashcraft PIT starter / away
Projected K 6.1
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98%
O 2.5 93%
O 3.5 84%
O 4.5 71%
O 5.5 55%
O 6.5 40%
O 7.5 27%
O 8.5 17%
O 9.5 10%
O 10.5 5%
O 11.5 3%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Andrew Abbott CIN starter / home
Projected K 5.8
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97%
O 2.5 92%
O 3.5 81%
O 4.5 67%
O 5.5 51%
O 6.5 36%
O 7.5 23%
O 8.5 14%
O 9.5 8%
O 10.5 4%
O 11.5 2%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Cristopher Sánchez PHI starter / away
Projected K 6.6
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99%
O 2.5 95%
O 3.5 88%
O 4.5 77%
O 5.5 63%
O 6.5 48%
O 7.5 34%
O 8.5 23%
O 9.5 14%
O 10.5 8%
O 11.5 4%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Shane Baz BAL starter / home
Projected K 5.4
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97%
O 2.5 89%
O 3.5 77%
O 4.5 62%
O 5.5 45%
O 6.5 30%
O 7.5 19%
O 8.5 11%
O 9.5 6%
O 10.5 3%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Jacob deGrom TEX starter / away
Projected K 6.5
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98%
O 2.5 95%
O 3.5 87%
O 4.5 76%
O 5.5 61%
O 6.5 46%
O 7.5 32%
O 8.5 21%
O 9.5 13%
O 10.5 7%
O 11.5 4%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Ronel Blanco HOU starter / home
Projected K 6.0
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98%
O 2.5 93%
O 3.5 84%
O 4.5 70%
O 5.5 55%
O 6.5 40%
O 7.5 26%
O 8.5 16%
O 9.5 10%
O 10.5 5%
O 11.5 3%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Kohl Drake ARI starter / away
Projected K 3.9
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 89%
O 2.5 73%
O 3.5 54%
O 4.5 35%
O 5.5 20%
O 6.5 11%
O 7.5 5%
O 8.5 2%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Parker Messick CLE starter / home
Projected K 4.6
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94%
O 2.5 83%
O 3.5 67%
O 4.5 49%
O 5.5 32%
O 6.5 19%
O 7.5 11%
O 8.5 5%
O 9.5 2%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Max Fried NYY starter / away
Projected K 4.7
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94%
O 2.5 83%
O 3.5 68%
O 4.5 50%
O 5.5 33%
O 6.5 20%
O 7.5 11%
O 8.5 6%
O 9.5 3%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
David Peterson CHC starter / home
Projected K 4.6
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94%
O 2.5 83%
O 3.5 67%
O 4.5 49%
O 5.5 32%
O 6.5 19%
O 7.5 11%
O 8.5 5%
O 9.5 3%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Miles Mikolas WSN starter / away
Projected K 3.5
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 85%
O 2.5 67%
O 3.5 46%
O 4.5 27%
O 5.5 15%
O 6.5 7%
O 7.5 3%
O 8.5 1%
O 9.5 0%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Reynaldo López ATL starter / home
Projected K 4.5
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93%
O 2.5 81%
O 3.5 64%
O 4.5 46%
O 5.5 30%
O 6.5 17%
O 7.5 9%
O 8.5 5%
O 9.5 2%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Luinder Avila KCR starter / away
Projected K 3.9
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90%
O 2.5 74%
O 3.5 55%
O 4.5 36%
O 5.5 21%
O 6.5 11%
O 7.5 5%
O 8.5 2%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Ryan Feltner COL starter / home
Projected K 4.0
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90%
O 2.5 75%
O 3.5 56%
O 4.5 37%
O 5.5 22%
O 6.5 12%
O 7.5 6%
O 8.5 3%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Walker Buehler SDP starter / home
Projected K 4.6
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94%
O 2.5 82%
O 3.5 66%
O 4.5 48%
O 5.5 31%
O 6.5 18%
O 7.5 10%
O 8.5 5%
O 9.5 2%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Robert Gasser MIL starter / away
Projected K 4.9
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95%
O 2.5 85%
O 3.5 70%
O 4.5 53%
O 5.5 36%
O 6.5 22%
O 7.5 13%
O 8.5 7%
O 9.5 3%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
José Soriano LAA starter / home
Projected K 5.1
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96%
O 2.5 87%
O 3.5 74%
O 4.5 57%
O 5.5 41%
O 6.5 26%
O 7.5 16%
O 8.5 9%
O 9.5 4%
O 10.5 2%
O 11.5 1%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Framber Valdez DET starter / away
Projected K 4.0
Market line N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90%
O 2.5 75%
O 3.5 56%
O 4.5 37%
O 5.5 22%
O 6.5 12%
O 7.5 6%
O 8.5 3%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.