MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-08-01 / 25 starters
Market
STL at TOR
Matthew LiberatoreSTL starter / away
Projected K4.1
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%
O 2.577%
O 3.558%
O 4.539%
O 5.524%
O 6.513%
O 7.57%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Kevin GausmanTOR starter / home
Projected K5.5
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.590%
O 3.578%
O 4.563%
O 5.547%
O 6.532%
O 7.520%
O 8.511%
O 9.56%
O 10.53%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

CHW at TBR
Noah SchultzCHW starter / away
Projected K3.6
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%
O 2.569%
O 3.548%
O 4.529%
O 5.516%
O 6.58%
O 7.53%
O 8.51%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Drew RasmussenTBR starter / home
Projected K6.0
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.593%
O 3.583%
O 4.570%
O 5.555%
O 6.539%
O 7.526%
O 8.516%
O 9.59%
O 10.55%
O 11.53%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

MIN at SEA
Connor PrielippMIN starter / away
Projected K5.0
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.586%
O 3.572%
O 4.555%
O 5.538%
O 6.524%
O 7.514%
O 8.58%
O 9.54%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

MIA at NYM
Tyler PhillipsMIA starter / away
Projected K3.6
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.586%
O 2.568%
O 3.547%
O 4.529%
O 5.516%
O 6.58%
O 7.53%
O 8.51%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Zac ThorntonNYM starter / home
Projected K4.5
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%
O 2.581%
O 3.564%
O 4.546%
O 5.530%
O 6.517%
O 7.59%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

PIT at CIN
Braxton AshcraftPIT starter / away
Projected K6.1
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.593%
O 3.584%
O 4.571%
O 5.555%
O 6.540%
O 7.527%
O 8.517%
O 9.510%
O 10.55%
O 11.53%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Andrew AbbottCIN starter / home
Projected K5.8
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.592%
O 3.581%
O 4.567%
O 5.551%
O 6.536%
O 7.523%
O 8.514%
O 9.58%
O 10.54%
O 11.52%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

PHI at BAL
Cristopher SánchezPHI starter / away
Projected K6.6
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%
O 2.595%
O 3.588%
O 4.577%
O 5.563%
O 6.548%
O 7.534%
O 8.523%
O 9.514%
O 10.58%
O 11.54%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Shane BazBAL starter / home
Projected K5.4
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%
O 2.589%
O 3.577%
O 4.562%
O 5.545%
O 6.530%
O 7.519%
O 8.511%
O 9.56%
O 10.53%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

TEX at HOU
Jacob deGromTEX starter / away
Projected K6.5
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.595%
O 3.587%
O 4.576%
O 5.561%
O 6.546%
O 7.532%
O 8.521%
O 9.513%
O 10.57%
O 11.54%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Ronel BlancoHOU starter / home
Projected K6.0
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%
O 2.593%
O 3.584%
O 4.570%
O 5.555%
O 6.540%
O 7.526%
O 8.516%
O 9.510%
O 10.55%
O 11.53%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

ARI at CLE
Kohl DrakeARI starter / away
Projected K3.9
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.589%
O 2.573%
O 3.554%
O 4.535%
O 5.520%
O 6.511%
O 7.55%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Parker MessickCLE starter / home
Projected K4.6
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.567%
O 4.549%
O 5.532%
O 6.519%
O 7.511%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

NYY at CHC
Max FriedNYY starter / away
Projected K4.7
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.568%
O 4.550%
O 5.533%
O 6.520%
O 7.511%
O 8.56%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

David PetersonCHC starter / home
Projected K4.6
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.583%
O 3.567%
O 4.549%
O 5.532%
O 6.519%
O 7.511%
O 8.55%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

WSN at ATL
Miles MikolasWSN starter / away
Projected K3.5
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.585%
O 2.567%
O 3.546%
O 4.527%
O 5.515%
O 6.57%
O 7.53%
O 8.51%
O 9.50%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Reynaldo LópezATL starter / home
Projected K4.5
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.593%
O 2.581%
O 3.564%
O 4.546%
O 5.530%
O 6.517%
O 7.59%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

KCR at COL
Luinder AvilaKCR starter / away
Projected K3.9
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.574%
O 3.555%
O 4.536%
O 5.521%
O 6.511%
O 7.55%
O 8.52%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Ryan FeltnerCOL starter / home
Projected K4.0
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.575%
O 3.556%
O 4.537%
O 5.522%
O 6.512%
O 7.56%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

SFG at SDP
Walker BuehlerSDP starter / home
Projected K4.6
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%
O 2.582%
O 3.566%
O 4.548%
O 5.531%
O 6.518%
O 7.510%
O 8.55%
O 9.52%
O 10.51%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

MIL at LAA
Robert GasserMIL starter / away
Projected K4.9
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%
O 2.585%
O 3.570%
O 4.553%
O 5.536%
O 6.522%
O 7.513%
O 8.57%
O 9.53%
O 10.51%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

José SorianoLAA starter / home
Projected K5.1
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%
O 2.587%
O 3.574%
O 4.557%
O 5.541%
O 6.526%
O 7.516%
O 8.59%
O 9.54%
O 10.52%
O 11.51%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

DET at OAK
Framber ValdezDET starter / away
Projected K4.0
Market lineN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%
O 2.575%
O 3.556%
O 4.537%
O 5.522%
O 6.512%
O 7.56%
O 8.53%
O 9.51%
O 10.50%
O 11.50%

Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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