MLB player props
Pitcher prop forecasts. Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.
MLB props / 2026-07-17 / 28 starters Market Strikeouts Hits
Lines Best price bovada fanduel draftkings betmgm betrivers fanatics
TBR at BOS Jul 17, 11:35 AM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastNick Martinez TBR starter / away
Projected K 3.6 Did not start / void
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 86%
O 2.5 68%
O 3.5 48%
O 4.5 29%
O 5.5 16%
O 6.5 8%
O 7.5 3%
O 8.5 1%
O 9.5 1%
O 10.5 0%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
Payton Tolle BOS starter / home
Projected K 4.4 Did not start / void
Market line · pregame N/A No two-sided pregame line
Model over line N/A
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 92%
O 2.5 80%
O 3.5 62%
O 4.5 44%
O 5.5 28%
O 6.5 16%
O 7.5 8%
O 8.5 4%
O 9.5 2%
O 10.5 1%
O 11.5 0%
Model probability that the starter exceeds each strikeout line.
LAD at NYY Jul 17, 5:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastRoki Sasaki LAD starter / away
Projected K 5.1 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -155 betmgm / U +122 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 56%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 73% over
O 4.5 56% over
O 5.5 39% under
O 6.5 25% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Gerrit Cole NYY starter / home
Projected K 4.5 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +125 bovada / U -137 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 30%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 93% over
O 2.5 81% over
O 3.5 64% over
O 4.5 46% over
O 5.5 30% over
O 6.5 17% over
O 7.5 9% over
O 8.5 5% under
O 9.5 2% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
TBR at BOS Jul 17, 5:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMason Englert TBR starter / away
Projected K 3.3 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +126 fanduel / U -162 fanduel 2 books at this line
Model over 4.5 25%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% over
O 2.5 64% over
O 3.5 43% over
O 4.5 25% under
O 5.5 13% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Eduardo Rivera BOS starter / home
Projected K 3.2 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +102 betrivers / U -115 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 39%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% over
O 2.5 61% over
O 3.5 39% under
O 4.5 22% under
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
CHW at TOR Jul 17, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastAnthony Kay CHW starter / away
Projected K 3.8 Actual 5 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +105 bovada / U -115 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 51%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 71% over
O 3.5 51% over
O 4.5 32% over
O 5.5 18% under
O 6.5 9% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Spencer Miles TOR starter / home
Projected K 3.2 Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -128 fanduel / U +106 draftkings 3 books at this line
Model over 3.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 82% over
O 2.5 62% over
O 3.5 40% over
O 4.5 23% under
O 5.5 11% under
O 6.5 5% under
O 7.5 2% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
TEX at ATL Jul 17, 5:15 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCal Quantrill TEX starter / away
Projected K 2.8 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O +134 fanduel / U -167 betrivers 4 books at this line
Model over 3.5 32%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 77% over
O 2.5 53% over
O 3.5 32% under
O 4.5 16% under
O 5.5 7% under
O 6.5 3% under
O 7.5 1% under
O 8.5 0% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
Chris Sale ATL starter / home
Projected K 6.7 Actual 6 K / Under 7.5
Best price at 7.5 7.5 O +108 draftkings / U -135 bovada 6 books at this line
Model over 7.5 35%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 99% over
O 2.5 95% over
O 3.5 89% over
O 4.5 78% over
O 5.5 64% over
O 6.5 49% under
O 7.5 35% under
O 8.5 24% under
O 9.5 15% under
O 10.5 9% under
O 11.5 5% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
MIA at MIL Jul 17, 5:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastSandy Alcantara MIA starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -140 draftkings / U +112 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 36% over
O 6.5 23% over
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Logan Henderson MIL starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +125 betmgm / U -142 fanduel 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 40%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 57% under
O 5.5 40% under
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 15% under
O 8.5 8% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
MIN at CHC Jul 17, 6:05 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBailey Ober MIN starter / away
Projected K 4.1 Actual 7 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -129 betrivers / U +110 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 58%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 77% over
O 3.5 58% over
O 4.5 39% over
O 5.5 24% over
O 6.5 13% over
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
Colin Rea CHC starter / home
Projected K 4.0 Actual 6 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -130 bovada / U +104 betrivers 5 books at this line
Model over 3.5 55%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 75% over
O 3.5 55% over
O 4.5 36% over
O 5.5 21% over
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
SDP at KCR Jul 17, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael King SDP starter / away
Projected K 3.9 Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +116 betrivers / U -134 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 36%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 90% over
O 2.5 74% over
O 3.5 55% over
O 4.5 36% under
O 5.5 21% under
O 6.5 11% under
O 7.5 5% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.
Seth Lugo KCR starter / home
Projected K 4.2 Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +128 fanduel / U -164 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 41%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 91% over
O 2.5 78% over
O 3.5 60% under
O 4.5 41% under
O 5.5 25% under
O 6.5 14% under
O 7.5 7% under
O 8.5 3% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
BAL at HOU Jul 17, 6:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastDean Kremer BAL starter / away
Projected K 4.9 Actual 5 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -125 draftkings / U +115 bovada 5 books at this line
Model over 4.5 53%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 71% over
O 4.5 53% over
O 5.5 37% under
O 6.5 23% under
O 7.5 13% under
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Peter Lambert HOU starter / home
Projected K 5.6 Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +106 betrivers / U -117 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 5.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% over
O 3.5 80% over
O 4.5 65% over
O 5.5 49% over
O 6.5 34% over
O 7.5 22% over
O 8.5 13% over
O 9.5 7% over
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.
CIN at COL Jul 17, 6:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastBrady Singer CIN starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +118 fanduel / U -147 draftkings 4 books at this line
Model over 4.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 22% under
O 7.5 12% under
O 8.5 6% under
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Gabriel Hughes COL starter / home
Projected K 5.1 Actual 6 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O +110 betmgm / U -118 betrivers 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 57%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 96% over
O 2.5 87% over
O 3.5 74% over
O 4.5 57% over
O 5.5 41% over
O 6.5 26% under
O 7.5 16% under
O 8.5 9% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
DET at LAA Jul 17, 7:38 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastTroy Melton DET starter / away
Projected K 4.7 Actual 9 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -130 bovada / U +120 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 33%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 94% over
O 2.5 84% over
O 3.5 68% over
O 4.5 50% over
O 5.5 33% over
O 6.5 20% over
O 7.5 11% over
O 8.5 6% over
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Reid Detmers LAA starter / home
Projected K 6.4 Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.5 6.5 O -121 betrivers / U +105 fanatics 6 books at this line
Model over 6.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 98% over
O 2.5 94% over
O 3.5 87% over
O 4.5 75% over
O 5.5 60% over
O 6.5 45% over
O 7.5 31% under
O 8.5 20% under
O 9.5 12% under
O 10.5 7% under
O 11.5 4% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.
WSN at OAK Jul 17, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastCade Cavalli WSN starter / away
Projected K 4.8 Actual 9 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.5 4.5 O -120 betmgm / U +116 draftkings 6 books at this line
Model over 4.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 85% over
O 3.5 70% over
O 4.5 52% over
O 5.5 35% over
O 6.5 22% over
O 7.5 12% over
O 8.5 6% over
O 9.5 3% under
O 10.5 1% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.
Gage Jump OAK starter / home
Projected K 5.0 Actual 8 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O +128 fanduel / U -148 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 38%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 95% over
O 2.5 86% over
O 3.5 72% over
O 4.5 54% over
O 5.5 38% over
O 6.5 24% over
O 7.5 14% over
O 8.5 7% under
O 9.5 4% under
O 10.5 2% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 8 strikeouts.
STL at ARI Jul 17, 7:40 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastMichael McGreevy STL starter / away
Projected K 3.4 Actual 5 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.5 2.5 O -154 draftkings / U +126 fanduel 4 books at this line
Model over 2.5 65%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 84% over
O 2.5 65% over
O 3.5 43% over
O 4.5 25% over
O 5.5 13% under
O 6.5 6% under
O 7.5 3% under
O 8.5 1% under
O 9.5 0% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.
Merrill Kelly ARI starter / home
Projected K 3.8 Actual 3 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.5 3.5 O -113 fanduel / U +100 betmgm 6 books at this line
Model over 3.5 52%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 88% over
O 2.5 72% over
O 3.5 52% under
O 4.5 33% under
O 5.5 19% under
O 6.5 10% under
O 7.5 4% under
O 8.5 2% under
O 9.5 1% under
O 10.5 0% under
O 11.5 0% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.
SFG at SEA Jul 17, 8:10 PM MDT / Final / frozen pregame forecastLanden Roupp SFG starter / away
Projected K 5.7 Actual 2 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -105 betmgm / U -107 draftkings 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 49%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 91% under
O 3.5 80% under
O 4.5 66% under
O 5.5 49% under
O 6.5 34% under
O 7.5 22% under
O 8.5 13% under
O 9.5 7% under
O 10.5 4% under
O 11.5 2% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.
Bryce Miller SEA starter / home
Projected K 5.4 Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.5 5.5 O -142 fanduel / U +125 fanatics 5 books at this line
Model over 5.5 45%
Full strikeout line grid O 1.5 97% over
O 2.5 90% over
O 3.5 77% over
O 4.5 62% over
O 5.5 45% over
O 6.5 30% under
O 7.5 19% under
O 8.5 11% under
O 9.5 6% under
O 10.5 3% under
O 11.5 1% under
Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.
Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.