Ranked picks with source labels.

Model favors HOU 58% but market has TOR -127 (55% implied). Model likely overweighting HOU's short-window runs allowed without seeing Bieber's actu...

Model and market align on PHI (58% vs Pinnacle 62%). Luzardo's 10.19 K/9 over 85.7 IP is a legitimate comparison over Littell's 5.45 ERA. WSN's .82...

Model has MIL at 58.3%, market is dead even at 50-50. The 8.3pp disagreement flags structural risk. Both pitchers are struggling (Lodolo 6.12 ERA,...

Model has LAD at 58.3%, market at 63.6% — meaningful gap favoring LAD more than model sees. Rojas has just 14.1 IP this season; his 1.26 ERA is pur...

Model picks CLE at 58.3%, market implies 51.2% — modest comparison. Messick (2.70 ERA, 9.45 K/9) has clear SP advantage over Burke (3.89 ERA). Park...

Home pitcher is fallback (Sullivan unresolved), away has Gray (3.12 ERA in 69 IP). Coors 1.47 park factor screams over; model 10.98 vs market 10.5...

Ryan Johnson's 12.83 ERA across 13.1 IP is a disaster; market correctly prices BAL as favorite. Model at 58.3% vs market 59.1% converges reasonably...

SDP starter is TBD/fallback with only 37.7 IP sample. ATL has superior offense (.789 OPS vs .547) and better record (46-31 vs 38-39). Market is nea...

Model has TEX 53.4%, market has MIA 59.1% — a 5.7pp gap triggering the large disagreement flag. MIA's 2.8 RPG on .774 OPS vs TEX's anemic 1.7 RPG o...

Model has ARI 53.4%, market has STL 51.4% — tight split. Rodriguez (2.45 ERA, 88 IP) is pitching well vs Leahy (4.63 ERA, 70 IP). offense_defense_m...

Model favors OAK 53.4% vs market's 47.4% for home—a 6pp gap without structural flags to explain it. Oracle's 0.906 park factor supports under on th...

Model likes DET 51.7% vs market 49.1%, essentially a coinflip. NYY offense is vastly superior (3.9 RPG vs 2.7, .692 OPS vs .582) and better record...