Ranked picks with source labels.

Model has KCR at 60.5% but market implies 48.1% — a 12.4pp gap flags structural disagreement. King's 3.41 ERA and 1.15 WHIP are superior to Lugo's...

Market has ATL at 65.3% vs model's 58.3%; I side with market given Sale's 2.20 ERA in 98 IP anchors a real comparison. Ace matchup flag applies but...

Hughes has 9.0 IP in one start; model cannot reliably project his performance at Coors. Market total 12.0 vs model 10.88 reflects Coors premium. Si...

Model slightly favors LAA (55.1%) vs market's DET comparison (51.2% implied). Melton's 1.82 ERA in 49 IP is elite but small sample. Detmers' 4.39 E...

Market and model converge on a near coin-flip (market 53.1% BOS, model 47.8%). Both starters have sub-3.20 ERAs with ace_matchup flag active. Model...

Model favors MIN at 52% but market implies CHC 56%. CHC has better offense (5.9 RPG vs 5.0) and home field. Both pitchers are mediocre (ERA ~4.5)....