MLB real data
MLB moneyline board.
Moneyline predictions run on our live MLB model. Run-line and total models are shown as projection context while edge and EV remain disabled.
Top Picks Today
Strongest current spots
Model and market converge tightly on NYY (~60% implied). Weathers lacks basic stats (IP/ERA null despite 10 starts), creating structural uncertaint...
Model has WSN at 58% but market implies MIL 54%. MIL's .972 OPS and 6.0 RPG dwarf WSN's .82 OPS and 5.1 RPG. Missing pitcher ERA/WHIP data makes to...
Model likes LAA at 58% vs market's 45%, a 13-point gap flagged as large disagreement. Both teams 3.8 RPG, similar offensive profiles. Model total 8...
Model at 57.5% vs market 56.4% on SEA—barely any comparison. Both starters show 0.00 ERA in 6 IP which is obviously tiny samples, no persistent sig...
Cease's 1.69 ERA and 20.25 K/9 in 5.1 IP is microscopic sample, but market respects it at -121. Prielipp is pure fallback data—no ERA, IP, or K/9 t...
AI Analyst Today
Ranked MLB analyst slate
Model and market converge tightly on NYY (~60% implied). Weathers lacks basic stats (IP/ERA null despite 10 starts), creating structural uncertainty. Bradish's 3.86 ER...
Cease's 1.69 ERA and 20.25 K/9 in 5.1 IP is microscopic sample, but market respects it at -121. Prielipp is pure fallback data—no ERA, IP, or K/9 to work with. Model p...
Model at 57.5% vs market 56.4% on SEA—barely any comparison. Both starters show 0.00 ERA in 6 IP which is obviously tiny samples, no persistent signal. T-Mobile's 0.85...
Market implies CHC 60.3%, model has 53.6% — market is more bullish on Cubs. Both starters have 7+ ERAs in tiny samples (5.0 IP, 4.2 IP), making pitcher quality a coin...
Market at 63.5% vs model 50.6% is a 13pp gap. King's 0.00 ERA in 5.0 IP is absurdly small sample but Burke's 6.75 ERA in 4.0 IP is equally noisy. Petco suppresses runs...
Model has WSN at 58% but market implies MIL 54%. MIL's .972 OPS and 6.0 RPG dwarf WSN's .82 OPS and 5.1 RPG. Missing pitcher ERA/WHIP data makes total prediction unrel...
Away pitcher Arrighetti on fallback data with 7.94 ERA and 1.94 WHIP creates uncertainty. Model picks HOU at 52.2% but market has BOS -124 (54.2% implied). Early's 1.6...
Model has CIN 56.1%, market implies PIT 54.4% — tight disagreement. Model's 9.82 total is 1.82 runs over market's 8.0, likely overweighting PNC's 1.055 park factor and...
MLB Board
Moneyline predictions with pitcher, projection, and market context
Model and market converge tightly on NYY (~60% implied). Weathers lacks basic stats (IP/ERA null despite 10 starts), creating structural uncertaint...
Model has WSN at 58% but market implies MIL 54%. MIL's .972 OPS and 6.0 RPG dwarf WSN's .82 OPS and 5.1 RPG. Missing pitcher ERA/WHIP data makes to...
Model likes LAA at 58% vs market's 45%, a 13-point gap flagged as large disagreement. Both teams 3.8 RPG, similar offensive profiles. Model total 8...
Model at 57.5% vs market 56.4% on SEA—barely any comparison. Both starters show 0.00 ERA in 6 IP which is obviously tiny samples, no persistent sig...
Cease's 1.69 ERA and 20.25 K/9 in 5.1 IP is microscopic sample, but market respects it at -121. Prielipp is pure fallback data—no ERA, IP, or K/9 t...
Model has CIN 56.1%, market implies PIT 54.4% — tight disagreement. Model's 9.82 total is 1.82 runs over market's 8.0, likely overweighting PNC's 1...
Griffin Jax has 1.0 IP this season (18.00 ERA); Roupp has null stats. Neither starter has meaningful data. Model predicts 9.23 runs vs market 7.5,...
Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.
Sasaki's stats are completely missing (null ERA/IP/K9/WHIP). McGreevy's 6.0 IP over 10 starts averages 0.6 IP per start—clearly incomplete data. Mo...
Market implies CHC 60.3%, model has 53.6% — market is more bullish on Cubs. Both starters have 7+ ERAs in tiny samples (5.0 IP, 4.2 IP), making pit...
Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.
Away pitcher Arrighetti on fallback data with 7.94 ERA and 1.94 WHIP creates uncertainty. Model picks HOU at 52.2% but market has BOS -124 (54.2% i...
DET pitcher Montero has fallback data with only 4.1 IP across 10 'starts' (0.4 IP/start suggests bulk reliever usage or data error). TEX pitcher Ro...
Model pick shown; AI Analyst note unavailable for this matchup.
Market at 63.5% vs model 50.6% is a 13pp gap. King's 0.00 ERA in 5.0 IP is absurdly small sample but Burke's 6.75 ERA in 4.0 IP is equally noisy. P...