Ranked picks with source labels.

Model favors TOR 58.6% but market is dead even (MIN -105). Yesavage data is fallback quality (10 starts, 5.1 IP total impossible—likely aggregation...

Model likes CIN at 58.6% vs market's 48%. Both pitchers lack ERA/WHIP data despite 10 starts each—genuine uncertainty. Model's 9.23 total vs market...

Strider fallback data (0.00 ERA, 6.0 IP) is obviously incomplete; real signal unclear. ATL's 24-10 record and .789 OPS vs COL's .531 OPS is the cle...

Tyler Holton has 0.2 IP in 10 'starts' (likely opener role); Jack Leiter has null stats across all categories. Both pitchers effectively have no us...

Missing pitcher ERA/WHIP data makes this unpickable on moneyline despite Castillo's reputation and T-Mobile's extreme park factor (0.855). Market t...

Griffin Canning's data is a fallback (5.0 IP over 10 starts is implausible), making this a structural uncertainty case. Market implies 62.3% SDP vs...

Model picks WSN at 57.5% but market has MIL -130 (implied 56.5% MIL). With TBD for MIL starter and missing pitcher stats for both sides, confidence...

Wrobleski has null stats across all fields—no ERA, no IP, no K/9. May's 13.5 ERA in 4.0 IP is catastrophically small sample. Model likes STL at 57....

Model picks SFG at 55.2% vs market 45.4% — an 8+ point gap flagged as large disagreement. SFG offense is abysmal (.388 OPS, 2.7 RPG over 33 games)....

Model picks ARI at 53% but market has CHC at 59% (Pinnacle -150). Kelly's data is fallback quality; Boyd's 14.73 ERA in 3.2 IP is tiny sample noise...