Ranked picks with source labels.

Model (64.8%) and market (64.9%) converge tightly on ARI. Both pitchers lack ERA/IP data despite 10 starts each—unusual but not flagged as fallback...

Model picks NYY at 60.2% vs market's 58%, but TBR has superior record (33-15) and offense (6.5 RPG, .802 OPS vs 3.5 RPG, .692 OPS). Offense_defense...

Model has MIL 60% vs market coin flip. Large disagreement flag + offense_defense_mismatch both fire. LAD superior offense (5.4 RPG, .743 OPS vs 4.6...

Model has CHC 58% vs market 57%, essentially convergent. Model total of 8.84 runs is 1.84 above market 7.0—a structural red flag. Pitcher stats are...

Market favors BAL at 55.9% while model leans DET at 52.2% - classic disagreement scenario. BAL offense (3.6 RPG, .662 OPS) significantly stronger t...

Market is a coin flip (CHW -105). Model has CHW at 55.7%, slight comparison but not exploitable. Model predicts 8.91 total vs market 7.0 — a 1.91 r...

Model sees TEX at 55.2%, market implies 60.8% — rare case where market is more confident than model. deGrom at Angel Stadium (neutral park) argues...

Model has OAK 55.2%, market has SDP 54.6% — nearly a coin flip with large disagreement flag. Petco PF 0.962 plus Buehler's null stats (data_quality...

Model likes BOS at 53.6% but market has them at 58.6% — a 5pp gap favoring MIN. BOS offense is league-worst at 2.6 RPG despite Fenway boost. MIN at...

Model has SEA 53.1%, market 54.6% — tight convergence. Noah Cameron's missing stats are concerning; full data_quality but null ERA/IP suggests inco...

Model has CLE at 52% while Pinnacle implies PHI 63% — a massive 11-point gap favoring the home side. Sánchez's 0.00 ERA in 60 IP with 0.50 WHIP is...