Ranked picks with source labels.

Model predicts 9.43 total vs market 7.5 - a 1.93 run gap flags structural miss. Skubal (2.70 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 9.35 K/9) is elite; Progressive Field...

Market and model align strongly on LAD (market 66%, model 59%). Yamamoto's 2.68 ERA and 0.92 WHIP are elite; Burke is solid but outmatched. Model p...

Model likes PIT 58% vs market 54%, a 4-point gap within noise. Bachar's 2.97 ERA in 36 IP is a tiny sample; Chandler's 4.91 across 62 IP is more re...

Model has BOS 53.6% vs market 51.7% — essentially a coin flip. Both pitchers at 3.18 ERA with deGrom's 10.7 K/9 comparison and 0.99 WHIP suggest sl...

Model has SFG 53.5% vs market 46.3%, a 7.2pp gap favoring the home side. But CHC is 36-34 with superior .694 OPS vs SFG's .388, and Ben Brown's 1.7...

Joey Estes has fallback data (no ERA/IP/WHIP), making home side unreliable. Market total is 14.0 vs model's 8.89—a 5+ run chasm suggests the model...

Model sees coin flip (50.6% TOR), market leans NYY at 53.7%. Schlittler's 1.87 ERA over 82 IP is legit, not small-sample noise. Model's 9.07 total...