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MLB player props

Pitcher prop forecasts.

Model-projected strikeout and hits-allowed counts with over probabilities for every confirmed probable starter, shown against the latest pregame market line. These are forecasts for context, not betting picks. More prop markets and sports will join this board as their models come online.

MLB props / 2026-07-28 / 30 starters
Market
Lines
CLE at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Slade CecconiCLE starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -110 betmgm / U -111 fanduel7 books at this line
Model over 4.544%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%under
O 3.563%under
O 4.544%under
O 5.528%under
O 6.516%under
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Chase BurnsCIN starter / home
Projected K6.4Actual 4 K / Under 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +115 betmgm / U -122 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 6.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.594%over
O 3.586%over
O 4.575%under
O 5.560%under
O 6.545%under
O 7.531%under
O 8.520%under
O 9.512%under
O 10.57%under
O 11.54%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

TEX at TBR / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Cal QuantrillTEX starter / away
Projected K2.7Actual 7 K / Over 2.5
Best price at 2.52.5O -149 betonlineag / U +130 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 2.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.574%over
O 2.549%over
O 3.528%over
O 4.513%over
O 5.56%over
O 6.52%over
O 7.51%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Griffin JaxTBR starter / home
Projected K5.4Actual 10 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +100 bovada / U -128 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.545%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.577%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%over
O 7.519%over
O 8.511%over
O 9.56%over
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

ARI at PIT / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Brandon PfaadtARI starter / away
Projected K3.9Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -145 fanatics / U +126 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 3.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.574%over
O 3.555%over
O 4.536%under
O 5.521%under
O 6.511%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Bubba ChandlerPIT starter / home
Projected K4.1Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +129 draftkings / U -150 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

PHI at MIA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Aaron NolaPHI starter / away
Projected K5.3Actual 4 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +126 fanduel / U -144 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.543%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.589%over
O 3.576%over
O 4.560%under
O 5.543%under
O 6.528%under
O 7.517%under
O 8.510%under
O 9.55%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Sandy AlcantaraMIA starter / home
Projected K5.6Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +122 betonlineag / U -143 betrivers5 books at this line
Model over 5.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.591%over
O 3.580%over
O 4.565%over
O 5.549%under
O 6.534%under
O 7.521%under
O 8.513%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

BAL at DET / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Dean KremerBAL starter / away
Projected K5.0Actual 4 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -145 betmgm / U +120 bovada6 books at this line
Model over 4.555%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.572%over
O 4.555%under
O 5.538%under
O 6.524%under
O 7.514%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Troy MeltonDET starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 5 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -120 betmgm / U +107 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 5.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.564%over
O 5.548%under
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.57%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 5 strikeouts.

TOR at WSN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Shane BieberTOR starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 0 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -155 betmgm / U +132 draftkings4 books at this line
Model over 3.558%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%under
O 2.577%under
O 3.558%under
O 4.539%under
O 5.524%under
O 6.513%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 0 strikeouts.

Cade CavalliWSN starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 3 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +108 betrivers / U -110 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 4.554%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%over
O 2.586%over
O 3.571%under
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 3 strikeouts.

CLE at CIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Gavin WilliamsCLE starter / away
Projected K7.0Actual 12 K / Over 7.5
Best price at 7.57.5O -125 bovada / U +110 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 7.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.599%over
O 2.596%over
O 3.590%over
O 4.581%over
O 5.568%over
O 6.554%over
O 7.539%over
O 8.527%over
O 9.518%over
O 10.511%over
O 11.56%over

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 12 strikeouts.

Caleb FergusonCIN starter / home
Projected K2.1Actual 1 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.563%under
O 2.536%under
O 3.517%under
O 4.57%under
O 5.52%under
O 6.51%under
O 7.50%under
O 8.50%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

KCR at MIN / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Seth LugoKCR starter / away
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O +132 betrivers / U -158 fanduel5 books at this line
Model over 4.538%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%under
O 3.557%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Taj BradleyMIN starter / home
Projected K6.0Actual 10 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +115 betmgm / U -135 bovada7 books at this line
Model over 6.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.598%over
O 2.593%over
O 3.583%over
O 4.570%over
O 5.554%over
O 6.539%over
O 7.526%over
O 8.516%over
O 9.59%over
O 10.55%under
O 11.53%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 10 strikeouts.

NYY at CHW / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Gerrit ColeNYY starter / away
Projected K5.4Actual 7 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +110 bovada / U -125 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.530%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.562%over
O 5.545%over
O 6.530%over
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Anthony KayCHW starter / home
Projected K4.6Actual 7 K / Over 4.5
Best price at 4.54.5O -120 bovada / U +100 betrivers6 books at this line
Model over 4.549%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.583%over
O 3.567%over
O 4.549%over
O 5.532%over
O 6.519%over
O 7.511%under
O 8.55%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

CHC at STL / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Colin ReaCHC starter / away
Projected K3.6Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O +110 betmgm / U -125 betrivers7 books at this line
Model over 3.548%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.587%over
O 2.569%under
O 3.548%under
O 4.530%under
O 5.516%under
O 6.58%under
O 7.54%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Michael McGreevySTL starter / home
Projected K4.0Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -105 betmgm / U -107 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 3.556%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.590%over
O 2.576%under
O 3.556%under
O 4.538%under
O 5.522%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

HOU at LAA / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Peter LambertHOU starter / away
Projected K5.5Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +112 draftkings / U -120 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.547%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.579%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.547%over
O 6.532%under
O 7.520%under
O 8.512%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

Reid DetmersLAA starter / home
Projected K5.8Actual 9 K / Over 6.5
Best price at 6.56.5O +112 fanduel / U -132 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 6.536%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.592%over
O 3.581%over
O 4.567%over
O 5.551%over
O 6.536%over
O 7.523%over
O 8.514%over
O 9.58%under
O 10.54%under
O 11.52%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 9 strikeouts.

COL at SDP / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Michael LorenzenCOL starter / away
Projected K3.8Actual 2 K / Under 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -108 draftkings / U -104 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 3.552%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.588%over
O 2.572%under
O 3.552%under
O 4.533%under
O 5.519%under
O 6.510%under
O 7.55%under
O 8.52%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Michael KingSDP starter / home
Projected K4.8Actual 6 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +115 bovada / U -131 draftkings7 books at this line
Model over 5.534%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.594%over
O 2.584%over
O 3.569%over
O 4.551%over
O 5.534%over
O 6.521%under
O 7.512%under
O 8.56%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 6 strikeouts.

BOS at OAK / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Jake BennettBOS starter / away
Projected K4.1Actual 4 K / Over 3.5
Best price at 3.53.5O -160 bovada / U +134 draftkings5 books at this line
Model over 3.557%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.591%over
O 2.576%over
O 3.557%over
O 4.538%under
O 5.523%under
O 6.512%under
O 7.56%under
O 8.53%under
O 9.51%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 4 strikeouts.

Gage JumpOAK starter / home
Projected K5.1Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +105 betrivers / U -125 betmgm6 books at this line
Model over 5.539%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.596%over
O 2.587%over
O 3.573%over
O 4.556%over
O 5.539%over
O 6.525%over
O 7.515%under
O 8.58%under
O 9.54%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

MIL at SFG / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Logan HendersonMIL starter / away
Projected K4.4Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +110 fanduel / U -120 fanatics7 books at this line
Model over 5.528%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.592%over
O 2.580%over
O 3.563%over
O 4.544%over
O 5.528%over
O 6.516%over
O 7.58%under
O 8.54%under
O 9.52%under
O 10.51%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Landen RouppSFG starter / home
Projected K4.9Actual 1 K / Under 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O -101 draftkings / U -111 fanduel6 books at this line
Model over 5.537%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.595%under
O 2.586%under
O 3.571%under
O 4.554%under
O 5.537%under
O 6.523%under
O 7.513%under
O 8.57%under
O 9.53%under
O 10.52%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 1 strikeouts.

SEA at LAD / Final / frozen pregame forecast
Luis CastilloSEA starter / awayThin data
Projected K3.2Actual 2 K
Market line · pregameN/ANo two-sided pregame line
Model over lineN/A
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.582%over
O 2.561%under
O 3.539%under
O 4.522%under
O 5.511%under
O 6.55%under
O 7.52%under
O 8.51%under
O 9.50%under
O 10.50%under
O 11.50%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 2 strikeouts.

Justin WrobleskiLAD starter / home
Projected K5.5Actual 7 K / Over 5.5
Best price at 5.55.5O +120 betmgm / U -123 draftkings6 books at this line
Model over 5.546%
Full strikeout line grid
O 1.597%over
O 2.590%over
O 3.578%over
O 4.563%over
O 5.546%over
O 6.531%over
O 7.519%under
O 8.511%under
O 9.56%under
O 10.53%under
O 11.51%under

Model probability per line, marked against the actual 7 strikeouts.

Strikeout forecasts are model projections for confirmed probable starters, not betting picks. In our own evaluation the market closing line has been the sharper forecaster. Market lines and odds are the latest pregame snapshot, never live odds. Best price compares books only at the consensus line. A scratched or replaced starter voids the forecast for that pitcher. Completed games show the actual strikeouts next to each forecast for calibration — these were context, never graded picks.

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